IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v144y2016icp77-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models

Author

Listed:
  • Lieffering, Mark
  • Newton, Paul C.D.
  • Vibart, Ronaldo
  • Li, Frank Y.

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to affect the productivity of agricultural enterprises with the ability to adapt varying among farm systems. We modelled the impacts and tested the effects of potential adaptations to climate change for two New Zealand sheep and beef grazing enterprises located in regions that have contrasting climate change projections. For both enterprises we examined six management systems varying in farming intensity and the tactics used to respond to changes in feed supply and demand. The effects of the impacts and adaptations were determined by examining the economic viability of the systems. We modelled pasture growth over two 20-year periods centred on 1990 and 2040 using downscaled climate projections and a pasture simulation model; the resultant pasture growth curves were used in a farm system model to both determine impacts and test the benefits of adaptation. For both regions there were only slight increases in total annual pasture growth but marked changes in seasonality that required changes in the management system. For one region there were clear benefits of climate change which were accentuated by adaptation while in the other climate change had no positive impacts and adaptation was not effective. Two caveats are noteworthy: first, although adaptations used for the 2040 management systems were not outside the biologically feasible options achievable today, they did involve changes in reproductive efficiency and animal growth rates that are only currently achieved on the highest performing farms. Secondly, some of the adaptations assumed and depended on stock and feed movement between farms and regions, however we were not able to assess the possibility of synchronous, widespread droughts in multiple regions; should these increase then our adaptations would be challenging and could also put pressure on current agricultural infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Lieffering, Mark & Newton, Paul C.D. & Vibart, Ronaldo & Li, Frank Y., 2016. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 77-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:144:y:2016:i:c:p:77-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X16300063
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. White, T.A. & Snow, V.O. & King, W.McG., 2010. "Intensification of New Zealand beef farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 21-35, January.
    2. Kevin Hanslow & Don Gunasekera & Brendan Cullen & David Newth, 2014. "Economic impacts of climate change on the Australian dairy sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 60-77, January.
    3. Finger, Robert & Lazzarotto, Patrick & Calanca, Pierluigi, 2010. "Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 666-674, November.
    4. Cros, M. J. & Duru, M. & Garcia, F. & Martin-Clouaire, R., 2004. "Simulating management strategies: the rotational grazing example," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 23-42, April.
    5. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    6. Topp, Cairistiona F. E. & Doyle, Christopher J., 1996. "Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland: 2. The effects on milk yields and grazing management of dairy herds," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 243-270.
    7. Lazzarotto, P. & Calanca, P. & Fuhrer, J., 2009. "Dynamics of grass–clover mixtures—An analysis of the response to management with the PROductive GRASsland Simulator (PROGRASS)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 703-724.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton, 2018. "Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 219-231, July.
    2. Afshin Ghahramani & S. Mark Howden & Agustin del Prado & Dean T. Thomas & Andrew D. Moore & Boyu Ji & Serkan Ates, 2019. "Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-30, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soraya Tanure & Carlos Nabinger & João Luiz Becker, 2015. "Bioeconomic Model of Decision Support System for Farm Management: Proposal of a Mathematical Model," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 658-671, November.
    2. Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Finger, Robert & Lazzarotto, Patrick & Calanca, Pierluigi, 2010. "Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 666-674, November.
    4. Crosson, P. & O'Kiely, P. & O'Mara, F.P. & Wallace, M., 2006. "The development of a mathematical model to investigate Irish beef production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 349-370, September.
    5. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    6. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    8. Duy X. Tran & Diane Pearson & Alan Palmer & David Gray, 2020. "Developing a Landscape Design Approach for the Sustainable Land Management of Hill Country Farms in New Zealand," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-29, June.
    9. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Denise R Osborn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on Growth Spillovers from China to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/17, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    12. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    14. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(02), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Alemu Lambamo Hawitibo, 2023. "Explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia: the role of monetary and fiscal policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1033-1061, April.
    16. Vanwindekens, Frédéric M. & Stilmant, Didier & Baret, Philippe V., 2013. "Development of a broadened cognitive mapping approach for analysing systems of practices in social–ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 352-362.
    17. Mohd Azlan Shah Saidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Zurina Kefeli@Zulkefli, 2018. "Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 25-44.
    18. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    19. Jose A. Perez‐Mendez & David Roibas & Alan Wall, 2019. "The influence of weather conditions on dairy production," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(2), pages 165-175, March.
    20. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 45-67, JUNE.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:144:y:2016:i:c:p:77-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.