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Measuring the external risk in the United Kingdom

  • Estela Sáenz


    (University of Zaragoza)

  • María Dolores Gadea


    (University of Zaragoza)

  • Marcela Sabaté


    (University of Zaragoza)

This paper aims to describe the evolution of the external risk in the United Kingdom between 1961 and 2008. We first present a theoretical description of the risk indicator. Then, we calculate this measure for the British economy in the period of study. In general, the results reveal a very small increase of external risk. Finally, the relationship between the two dimensions of external risk: trade openness and external volatility is analysed.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1182-1189

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00195
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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  6. Lutz, Matthias & Singer, H. W., 1994. "The link between increased trade openness and the terms of trade: An empirical investigation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1697-1709, November.
  7. Kim, So Young, 2007. "Openness, External Risk, and Volatility: Implications for the Compensation Hypothesis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(01), pages 181-216, January.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
  9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. repec:bla:restud:v:61:y:1994:i:4:p:631-53 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  14. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Muhammad Islam, 2004. "The long run relationship between openness and government size: evidence from bounds test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 995-1000.
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