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Price Discovery in Wheat Futures Markets

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  • Yang, Jian
  • Leatham, David J.

Abstract

This paper examines the price discovery function for three U.S. wheat futures markets: the Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas City Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange. The maintained hypothesis is that futures markets search more for information than cash markets to find an equilibrium price, thus greatly improving the price discovery function. The tests reveal the existence of one equilibrium price across the three futures markets in the long run, but no cointegration among prices in the three representative cash markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jian & Leatham, David J., 1999. "Price Discovery in Wheat Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 359-370, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:31:y:1999:i:02:p:359-370_00
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    1. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2020. "Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1354-1374, September.
    2. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    3. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde, 2019. "Determinants of spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2008. "Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-89, January.
    6. Kushankur Dey & Debasish Maitra, 2012. "Price discovery in Indian commodity futures market: an empirical exercise," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 68-87.
    7. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2020. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    8. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2006. "Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Cash and Futures Markets: The Role of Cash Market Selection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169809, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Du, Wen & Wang, H. Holly, 2004. "Price behavior in China's wheat futures market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229.
    12. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2024. "Contemporaneous causality among regional steel price indices of east, south, north, central south, northeast, southwest, and northwest China," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Pedro Linhares Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello, 2014. "The Fourth Dimension: Derivatives As A Form Of Capital," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Elumalai, K. & Rangasamy, N. & Sharma, R.K., 2009. "Price Discovery in India’s Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1-9.
    16. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
    17. Dimpfl, Thomas & Flad, Michael & Jung, Robert C., 2017. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 50-62.
    18. C. P. Gupta & Sanjay Sehgal & Sahaj Wadhwa, 2018. "Agricultural Commodity Trading: Is it Destabilizing Spot Markets?," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(1), pages 47-57, March.
    19. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A. & Leatham, David J., 2000. "The Law of One Price: Developed and Developing Country Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 429-440, December.
    20. Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
    21. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang & Liyu Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric price adjustment and price discovery in spot and futures markets of agricultural commodities," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 139-162, February.
    22. Ricardo de Medeiros Carneiro & Pedro Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello & Marcos Vinicius Chiliatto-Leite, 2015. "The Fourth Dimension," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 641-662, December.
    23. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.

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