Price discovery in Indian commodity futures market: an empirical exercise
The Indian commodity futures market is of recent introduction, albeit, it was in existence in a crude form a few centuries ago. After the opening of national level exchanges post 2002, the landscape of this market has witnessed phenomenal growth in terms of products on offer, trade volume, participation, and spatial distribution. In this paper, pepper has been selected as a commodity to explore the price discovery process through a series of tests, namely, Granger causality, co-integration, error correction with weak exogeneity, and forecast error variance decomposition. This paper sheds some light on existing methods of price discovery mechanism through some insightful inferences that unidirectional causality from futures to spot prices has been observed in the Indian pepper futures market. However, the adjustment of innovations or shocks in the futures market is relatively faster than that of the spot market.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=130|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Sohbet Karbuz & Adusei Jumah, 1995. "Cointegration and commodity arbitrage," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 235-243.
- Phillips, P C B, 1991.
"Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
- Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Yang, Jian & Leatham, David J., 1999.
"Price Discovery In Wheat Futures Markets,"
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,
Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(02), August.
- Hjelm, Goran & Johansson, Martin W., 2005. "A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 691-703, December.
- Abdullah, Dewan A & Rangazas, Peter C, 1988. "Money and the Business Cycle: Another Look," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 680-685, November.
- Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Price Discovery In Thinly Traded Markets: Cash And Futures Relationships In Brazilian Agricultural Futures Markets," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19019, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Qiaoling Li & Jiazhu Pan, 2009. "Determining the number of factors in a multivariate error correction--volatility factor model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 45-61, 03.
- Stoll, Hans R., 2003. "Market microstructure," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 553-604 Elsevier.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijtrgm:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:68-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Darren Simpson)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.