IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000165/007034.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The International Economic Crisis, the Trade Channel, and the Colombian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Argüello C., Ricardo

    ()

Abstract

Resumen: esta investigación proporciona una vía para la evaluación del impacto de corto plazo que la crisis financiera y económica internacional, transmitida esencialmente a través del canal comercial, puede tener sobre la economía colombiana. Para el efecto se emplea un modelo del sector real, el modelo GTAP, caracterizado por ser de alcance global y operar bajo el supuesto de retornos constantes a escala. La estrategia de modelación se basa en la implementación de un choque negativo a la dotación de capital de las economías de Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, de forma tal que se genere un decrecimiento del PIB similar al pronosticado para 2009 por el FMI. Los principales resultados indican que la economía colombiana puede decrecer en el vecindario de 1,54 por ciento. Si los correspondientes cambios en el comercio son acordes a estimaciones recientes de la elasticidad del comercio a cambios en el producto, el comercio colombiano puede disminuir en alrededor de 5,7 por ciento. Dado que el índice de precios al consumidor disminuye en 1,3 por ciento, la caída real en el PIB podría ser del orden de 0,24 por ciento.

Suggested Citation

  • Argüello C., Ricardo, 2009. "The International Economic Crisis, the Trade Channel, and the Colombian Economy," PERFIL DE COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:007034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/3295/3059
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks," MPRA Paper 15558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comercio internacional; crisis global; Colombia; equilibrio general computable;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000165:007034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Maria Posada Arboleda). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.