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CETA: Welche Effekte hat das EU-Kanada-Freihandelsabkommen auf Deutschland?

Author

Listed:
  • Rahel Aichele
  • Gabriel Felbermayr

Abstract

Das CETA-Abkommen sieht die Abschaffung von Zöllen, regulatorische Zusammenarbeit und Investitionsschutz zwischen der EU und Kanada vor. Nach unseren Simulationsrechnungen könnte es langfristig die Exporte Deutschlands nach Kanada verdreifachen und die Importe verdoppeln. CETA könnte in Deutschland einen langfristigen Zuwachs des realen Pro-Kopf-Einkommens von 0,2% ermöglichen; Kanada würde jedoch deutlich stärker profitieren. Der größte Nutznießer in Deutschland wäre der Fahrzeugbau; der Bergbau und Teile des Agri-Food-Bereichs würden verlieren. Zur Erreichung dieser positiven Effekte sind die umstrittenen Investor-Staats-Schiedsgerichte nicht notwendig. Das Investitionsschutzkapitel sollte aber auf ausländische Direktinvestitionen beschränkt sein und zu keiner Vergemeinschaftung politischer Risiken in der EU führen.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2014. "CETA: Welche Effekte hat das EU-Kanada-Freihandelsabkommen auf Deutschland?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(24), pages 20-30, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:24:p:20-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    2. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    3. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    4. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "A Macroeconomic Model of CETA's Impact on Austria," WIFO Working Papers 532, WIFO.
    2. Breuss, Fritz, 2022. "Who wins from an FTA induced revival of world trade?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 653-674.
    3. Florian Dorn & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke & Daniel Weishaar, 2016. "Die Freihandelsabkommen TTIP und CETA und ihre Auswirkungen – was sagen die Ökonomen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(18), pages 41-46, September.
    4. Fritz Breuss, 2020. "Pro-Globalization via FTAs in Times of COVID-19," WIFO Working Papers 617, WIFO.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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