IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifofor/v18y2017i02p52-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Free Trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok: Who Gains, Who Loses from a Eurasian Trade Agreement?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl

Abstract

Trade relations between the EU and Russia are currently severely impacted by Western sanctions against Russia and mutual embargo measures. This, however, has not led to a visible change in the geostrategic orientation of Russia. An adjustment of interests might perhaps require less punishment, but rather the prospect of closer economic cooperation. Both, the EU and the successor states of the Soviet Union should have a strong interest in a free trade area "from Lisbon to Vladivostok" because the structures of their comparative advantages are highly complementary. For Russia, a deep agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Community could lead to an increase in real per capita income of 3%; for Germany this would lead to an increase by 0.2%. This translates into an income increase of 235 Euros per capita and year for Russia and 91 Euros for Germany. Hence, Russia and the other countries of the former Soviet Union could be interesting partners for a deepened economic cooperation with the EU. The EU should have a strong interest in stable economic development in its immediate neighbourhood. In addition, the complementary specialization structure of these countries promises substantial economic benefits for the EU as well.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2017. "Free Trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok: Who Gains, Who Loses from a Eurasian Trade Agreement?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 52-62, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofor:v:18:y:2017:i:02:p:52-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/CESifo-Forum-2017-2-felbermayr-groeschl-eurasian-free-trade-june.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 63-66.
    2. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    3. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott & Tess Cyrus & Elizabeth Winston, 1997. "US Economic Sanctions: Their Impact on Trade, Jobs, and Wages," Working Paper Series Working Paper Special (2), Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Dür, Andreas & Baccini, Leonardo & Elsig, Manfred, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: introducing a new dataset," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Sven Schulze, 2011. "Russland am Scheideweg," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 91(8), pages 575-576, August.
    6. Paul Brenton & Natalia Tonrdyeva & Jhon Whalley, 2014. "The Potential Trade Effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 5, pages 83-103, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Andreas Dür & Leonardo Baccini & Manfred Elsig, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: Introducing a new dataset," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 353-375, September.
    8. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    9. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    10. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2017. "Effekte der US-Präsidentschaft Trump – Neuer Protektionismus," FIW Policy Brief series 037, FIW.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2017. "Free Trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 39-50, January.
    2. Walter, Timo, 2018. "Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 16-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    3. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2021. "Die Auswirkungen des Brexit auf Österreichs Wirtschaft," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66782, Juni.
    4. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kimura, Fukunari & Okubo, Toshihiro & Steininger, Marina, 2019. "Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 110-128.
    5. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2017. "Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 271-294, September.
    6. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Devashish Mitra & Rahel Aichele & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2017. "Europe and India: Relaunching a Troubled Trade Relationship," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 80.
    8. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2014. "CETA: What Are the Effects on Germany of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(24), pages 20-30, December.
    9. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger & Erdal Yalcin, 2017. "Global Impact of a Protectionist U.S. Trade Policy," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 89.
    11. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    12. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph F. Francois & Hugo Rojas†Romagosa, 2018. "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1095-1127, May.
    13. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    14. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    16. Sonali Chowdhry & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2021. "Trade Liberalization along the Firm Size Distribution: The Case of the EU-South Korea FTA," CESifo Working Paper Series 8951, CESifo.
    17. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rachel J. Nam, 2018. "A Multidimensional Approach to Trade Policy Indicators," IMF Working Papers 2018/032, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    19. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership Deal (TPP): What Are the Economic Consequences for In- and Outsiders?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 53-64, January.
    20. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Freihandel; Handelsabkommen; EU-Außenwirtschaftspolitik; WTO-Mitgliedschaft; EU-Staaten; Russland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifofor:v:18:y:2017:i:02:p:52-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.