L'immatérielle richesse des nations
Human capital plays an increasing role in modern economies, so that education often is the largest spending of States. These spendings imply an asset whereas not accounted for. We estimate the evolution of the stock of French educational capital from 1971 to 2050 with two approaches. In the first one, educational capital is calculated as the accumulation of educational spendings, depreciated each year at an estimated rate. The second method assimilates States with fiscal optimizers and estimates educational capital through expected fiscal revenues. Both methods show a strong increase in French educational capital from 1971 to 2002, by roughly 60 GDP percentage points. Today, French educational capital would be worth around 140 percentage. This amount is expected to grow slighlty over the next 20 years, with highly educated generations replacing low educated ones, and to diminish afterwards with an anticipated decline in generation sizes. JEL codes: I20, H54, H63.
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