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A Complete Decomposition of Unemployment Dynamics using Longitudinal Grouped Duration Data

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  • Muriel Dejemeppe

Abstract

In this paper, we study the unemployment dynamics in the Belgian regions, Flanders and Wallonia, on the basis of aggregate stratified data covering the period 1973-93. We decompose the aggregate exit probability from unemployment into calendar time and, both observed and unobserved, compositional effects. We find that changes in the inflow composition affect the cyclical fluctuations in unemployment duration only marginally. However, the long-run improvement in the quality of entrants into unemployment, notably in terms of educational attainment, mitigates the strong upward trend in this duration. This is a new result as none of the existing studies purges the trend in the aggregate outflow rate of the variation in its composition. We also conclude that in Belgium, incidence explains as much as 45% of the evolution of unemployment. Finally, the diverging evolution of unemployment across Flanders and Wallonia predominantly results from a stronger decline in the exit rates from unemployment in Wallonia. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "A Complete Decomposition of Unemployment Dynamics using Longitudinal Grouped Duration Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 47-70, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:1:p:47-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele Cardullo & Bruno Van der Linden, 2007. "Employment Subsidies and Substitutable Skills: An Equilibrium Matching Approach," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 53(4), pages 375-404.
    2. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2010. "The Threat of Monitoring Job Search: A Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 5337, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Bruno, VAN DER LINDEN, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005007, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    6. Jouko Verho, 2014. "Unemployment duration and the role of compositional variation: evidence from a period of economic crisis in Finland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 35-56, August.

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