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Cyclical variations in unemployment duration

Author

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  • Michael Rosholm

    () (Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business Fuglesangs Allé 20, DK-8210 Aarhus V, and Centre for Labour Market and Social Research)

Abstract

In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Rosholm, 2001. "Cyclical variations in unemployment duration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 173-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:14:y:2001:i:1:p:173-191
    Note: Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agne Lauzadyte, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," Economics Working Papers 2007-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Klinger, Sabine & Rothe, Thomas, 2010. "The impact of labour market reforms and economic performance on the matching of short-term and long-term unemployed," IAB Discussion Paper 201013, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Denmark; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 08/380, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    6. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    7. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    9. repec:bla:labour:v:31:y:2017:i:4:p:337-368 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. NAGORE GARCIA Amparo & VAN SOEST Arthur, 2016. "Unemployment Exits Before and During the Crisis," LISER Working Paper Series 2016-14, LISER.
    11. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Long-Term Unemployment in the ACT," CEPR Discussion Papers 603, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    12. Jouko Verho, 2014. "Unemployment duration and the role of compositional variation: evidence from a period of economic crisis in Finland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 35-56, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment duration · business cycle fluctuation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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