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Cyclical variations in unemployment duration

  • Michael Rosholm

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business Fuglesangs Allé 20, DK-8210 Aarhus V, and Centre for Labour Market and Social Research)

In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 173-191

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:14:y:2001:i:1:p:173-191
Note: Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999
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