A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

In this paper I estimate a discrete time hazard model for the exits from the different labour market states - unemployment, employment and inactivity (or OLF) - in the Danish labour market. I find that women and individuals over fifty are more likely to experience the long-term unemployment and inactivity. The less educated and unskilled workers are found to be another risk group to face the marginalisation from the labour market. Being previously employed reduces the risk of OLF, and increases the re-entry to employment probability, while living in the biggest Danish cities makes persons disadvantaged. These give the evidence that the "Flexicurity"model makes the weakest individuals disadvantaged in the Danish labour market. And finally, I find that those, who survived in a job one year, tend to remain employed, while persons, longer than one year inactive, face much higher risk of marginalisation.