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Downsized FX markets: causes and implications

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  • Michael Moore
  • Andreas Schrimpf
  • Vladyslav Sushko

Abstract

For the first time in 15 years, FX trading volumes contracted between two consecutive BIS Triennial Surveys. The decline in trading by leveraged institutions and "fast money" traders, and a reduction in risk appetite, have contributed to a significant drop in spot market activity. More active trading of FX derivatives, largely for hedging purposes, has provided a partial offset. Many FX dealer banks have become less willing to warehouse risk and have been re-evaluating their prime brokerage business. At the same time, new technologically driven non-bank players have gained firmer footing as market-makers and liquidity providers. Against this backdrop, FX trading is becoming increasingly relationship-driven, albeit in an electronic form. Such changes in the composition of market participants and their trading patterns may have significant implications for market functioning and FX market liquidity resilience going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Moore & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Downsized FX markets: causes and implications," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1612e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2019. "Foreign exchange dealer asset pricing," Discussion Papers 39/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Patnaik, Ila, 2018. "Internationalisation of the Rupee," Working Papers 18/222, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Karvik, Geir-Are & Noss, Joseph & Worlidge, Jack & Beale, Daniel, 2018. "The deeds of speed: an agent-based model of market liquidity and flash episodes," Bank of England working papers 743, Bank of England.
    5. Alexis Stenfors & Masayuki Susai, 2021. "Stealth Trading in FX Markets," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2021-02, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," Working Paper 2017/15, Norges Bank.
    7. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    8. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    9. Joseph, Andreas & Vasios, Michalis, 2022. "OTC Microstructure in a period of stress: A Multi-layered network approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Alain Chaboud & Dagfinn Rime & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "The foreign exchange market," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 12, pages 253-275, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Aldo Barrios & Rob Franolic & Davide Giovanardi & Michael Melvin, 2022. "Trading with the Informed and against the Uninformed: Flows and Positioning in the Global Currency Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9921, CESifo.
    12. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Butz, M. & Oomen, R., 2019. "Internalisation by electronic FX spot dealers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Hasbrouck, Joel & Levich, Richard M., 2021. "Network structure and pricing in the FX market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 705-729.
    15. Bruno Bonizzi & Annina Kaltenbrunner, 2019. "Liability-driven investment and pension fund exposure to emerging markets: A Minskyan analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(2), pages 420-439, March.
    16. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    17. Joel Hasbrouck & Richard M. Levich, 2017. "FX Market Metrics: New Findings Based on CLS Bank Settlement Data," NBER Working Papers 23206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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