IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajosrd/198004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends and Variability of Rice, Maize, and Wheat Yields in South Asian Countries: A Challenge for Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad
  • Chen, Shwu-En

Abstract

During the last six decades, the yield and production of rice, maize, and wheat grew remarkably in South Asian region. As these cereals are staple foods, the growth and fluctuation of yields greatly impacts on food security. This study aims to examine the growth patterns and variability of rice, wheat, and maize yields in South Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Utilizing the yield data during 1961-2010, we applied the linear and quadratic regressions for yield trends and variability analyses. Quadratic model was fitted well in all data sets except wheat yield in Pakistan. A clear indication of slowing growth rates was observed for wheat yield in Bangladesh and India, as well as a significant increase in maize yield variability was realized in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lank. The factors influencing for slowing yield growth rates are considered as comparative disadvantage of wheat to Boro rice in case of Bangladesh, whereas depletion of soil nutrient contents in the rice-wheat production areas and negative impact of climate change in India. The slowing yield growths exerted a challenge for food security in Bangladesh and India. Thus, policy implementations are urgent to improve the wheat yield growth and maize yield stabilization in the concerning countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad & Chen, Shwu-En, 2012. "Trends and Variability of Rice, Maize, and Wheat Yields in South Asian Countries: A Challenge for Food Security," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 2(04), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:198004
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.198004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/198004/files/8-157-AJARD-584-597.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.198004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
    2. Alauddin, Mohammad & Quiggin, John, 2008. "Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and policy options," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-124, March.
    3. Gerald E. Shively, 1996. "Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 126-136.
    4. Morris, Michael & Chowdhury, Nuimuddin & Meisner, Craig, 1996. "Economics of wheat production in Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 541-560, December.
    5. Larson, Donald W. & Jones, Eugene & Pannu, R. S. & Sheokand, R. S., 2004. "Instability in Indian agriculture--a challenge to the Green Revolution technology," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 257-273, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nthoiwa, G. P. & Gombalume, T. & Nthoiwa, K. K. Mokwena, 2013. "Processing and Utilization of Sorghum and Maize in Botswana: Current Status and Opportunities," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 3(11), pages 1-13, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad & Chen, Shwu-En & Ghimire, Raju, 2013. "Rice Yield Distribution and Risk Assessment in South Asian Countries: A Statistical Investigation," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 3(1), March.
    2. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    3. Balasubramanian, R. & Choi, Seung-churl, 2010. "Urbanization, Population Pressure And Agricultural Intensification: Evidences From Tamil Nadu In India," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 33(2), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Stephan Dietrich & Valerio Giuffrida & Bruno Martorano & Georg Schmerzeck, 2022. "COVID‐19 policy responses, mobility, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 569-588, March.
    5. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    6. Getnet, Kindie & Pfeifer, Catherine & MacAlister, Charlotte, 2014. "Economic incentives and natural resource management among small-scale farmers: Addressing the missing link," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-7.
    7. Bardsley, Douglas K. & Bardsley, Annette M., 2014. "Organising for socio-ecological resilience: The roles of the mountain farmer cooperative Genossenschaft Gran Alpin in Graubünden, Switzerland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-21.
    8. Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie & le Cotty, Tristan & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Is A Public Regulation Of Food Price Volatility Feasible In Africa? An Arch Approach In Kenya," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Yao, Richard T. & Shively, Gerald E. & Masters, William J., 2005. "How Successful Are Government Interventions In Food Markets? Insights From The Philippine Rice Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19263, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Lucie Michel & David Makowski, 2013. "Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.
    11. Valbuena, Diego & Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee & Erenstein, Olaf & Teufel, Nils & Duncan, Alan & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Swain, Braja & Mekonnen, Kindu & Germaine, Ibro & Gérard, Bruno, 2015. "Identifying determinants, pressures and trade-offs of crop residue use in mixed smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 107-118.
    12. Marcel Fafchamps & Ruth Vargas Hill, 2008. "Price Transmission and Trader Entry in Domestic Commodity Markets," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 729-766, July.
    13. Islam, Zeenatul & Sabiha, Noor E & Salim, Ruhul, 2022. "Integrated environment-smart agricultural practices: A strategy towards climate-resilient agriculture," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 59-72.
    14. Mohammad Alauddin & Upali A. Amarasinghe & Bharat R. Sharma, 2014. "Four decades of rice water productivity in Bangladesh: A spatio-temporal analysis of district level panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 51-64.
    15. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    16. Ramesh Chand & S S Raju & Sanjeev Garg, 2015. "Instability and Regional Variation in Indian Agriculture," Working Papers id:6799, eSocialSciences.
    17. Alauddin, Mohammad & Tisdell, Clement & Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid, 2021. "Do trends in Bangladeshi rice yields support Conway’s hypotheses about the consequences of modern agroecosystems?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 342-354.
    18. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    19. Petra Hýsková & Štěpán Hýsek & Vilém Jarský, 2020. "The Utilization of Crop Residues as Forest Protection: Predicting the Production of Wheat and Rapeseed Residues," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-10, July.
    20. Juraj Béreš & David Bečka & Jaroslav Tomášek & Jan Vašák, 2019. "Effect of autumn nitrogen fertilization on winter oilseed rape growth and yield parameters," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(9), pages 435-441.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:198004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesstea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.