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The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861–1998

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    ()

    (Dipartimento di Studi sullo Stato, University of Florence, Via delle Pandette, 21-50127 Firenze, Italy & CESifo, Munich, Germany & Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, EUI, San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy)

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    The Italian fiscal history is characterised by a number of fiscal consolidations. In this study, we characterise fiscal policy in terms of non-linear deterministic processes. We find that government spending and taxes can be described as being non-linear trend stationary processes instead of unit roots. A long run equilibrium relationship—a non-linear co-trend—does exist between the two series, fulfilling the intertemporal government budget constraint. We interpret this result as evidence of a long run fiscal rule that different policy makers have adopted, putting public finance in balance.

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    Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (October)
    Pages: 259-274

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    Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:2:y:2008:i:3:p:259-274
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org

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