IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v8y2016i4p199-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Intermediation, Leverage, and Macroeconomic Instability

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Phelan

Abstract

This paper investigates how financial sector leverage affects macroeconomic instability and welfare. In the model, banks borrow (use leverage) to allocate resources to productive projects and provide liquidity. When banks do not actively issue new equity, aggregate outcomes depend on the level of equity in the financial sector. Equilibrium is inefficient because agents do not internalize how their decisions affect volatility, aggregate leverage, and the returns on assets. Leverage creates systemic risk, which increases the frequency and duration of crises. Limiting leverage decreases asset price volatility and increases expected returns, which decrease the likelihood that the financial sector is undercapitalized.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Leverage, and Macroeconomic Instability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 199-224, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:4:p:199-224
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20140233
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=SwwY1bwCN1nmSRM7mOu4YO7AQfOiKHdl
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=G2Zh5bVd-lEzHRHRRIklsY6LFr0-YA4o
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=oIU88As80AHuBr5WwAH6yfXhHlrcBHAQ
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    2. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    3. Admati, Anat R. & Hellwig, Martin F., 2013. "Does Debt Discipline Bankers? An Academic Myth about Bank Indebtedness," Research Papers 3031, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Modena, Andrea, 2020. "Recapitalization, bailout, and long-run welfare in a dynamic model of banking," SAFE Working Paper Series 292, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Brunnermeier, M.K. & Sannikov, Y., 2016. "Macro, Money, and Finance," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1497-1545, Elsevier.
    3. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Fragility of Safe Assets," Working Papers 23-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    4. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Andrea Modena, 2020. "Recapitalization, Bailout, and Long-run Welfare in a Dynamic Model of Banking," Working Papers 2020:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Douglas Gale & Andrea Gamba & Marcella Lucchetta, 2018. "Dynamic Bank Capital Regulation in Equilibrium," 2018 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Caio Machado, 2024. "Coordinating in Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    8. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. P. J. Glandon & Ken Kuttner & Sandeep Mazumder & Caleb Stroup, 2023. "Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1088-1126, September.
    10. Hydzulkifli Hashim Omar* & Abubakar Yusuf Sanyinna, 2018. "Administrative Challenges of WAQF Institution in the Contemporary World: Future Prospects," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 294-299:6.
    11. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 181-200, July.
    12. Pietro Dindo & Andrea Modena & Loriana Pelizzon, 2019. "Risk Pooling, Leverage, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2019: 21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    13. Antoine Camous & Alejandro Van der Ghote, 2023. "Evaluating the Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Positive and Normative Analysis of Leveraged Risk-Taking and Extrapolative Expectations," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_431v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised May 2024.
    14. Zhiyong Zheng & Jian He & Yingjie Yang & Mengting Zhang & Desheng Wu & Yang Bian & Jianhong Cao, 2023. "Does financial leverage volatility induce systemic financial risk? Empirical insight based on the Chinese fintech sector," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 1142-1161, March.
    15. Martins, António Miguel, 2023. "Stock market effects of silicon valley bank and credit suisse failure: evidence for a sample of european listed banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    16. Chen, William & Phelan, Gregory, 2021. "International coordination of macroprudential policies with capital flows and financial asymmetries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Mao, Jie & Shen, Guanxiong & Yan, Jingzhou, 2023. "A continuous-time macro-finance model with Knightian uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 181-200, July.
    19. Begenau, Juliane, 2020. "Capital requirements, risk choice, and liquidity provision in a business-cycle model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 355-378.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2024. "Presidential Address: Macrofinance and Resilience," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3683-3728, December.
    2. Andolfatto, David & Martin, Fernando M. & Zhang, Shengxing, 2017. "Rehypothecation and liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 488-505.
    3. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    4. Janet Hua Jiang & Enchuan Shao, 2014. "Understanding the Cash Demand Puzzle," Staff Working Papers 14-22, Bank of Canada.
    5. Berentsen, Aleksander & Huber, Samuel & Marchesiani, Alessandro, 2016. "The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 303-323.
    6. Jiang, Janet Hua & Puzzello, Daniela & Zhang, Cathy, 2023. "Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Choi, Hyung Sun & Kwon, Ohik & Lee, Manjong, 2016. "Inflation, credit, and indexed unit of account," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 144-154.
    8. Antinolfi, Gaetano & Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James, 2016. "The Optimal Inflation Target In An Economy With Limited Enforcement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 582-600, March.
    9. Lukas Altermatt, 2022. "Inside Money, Investment, And Unconventional Monetary Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1527-1560, November.
    10. Nucera, Federico & Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2016. "The information in systemic risk rankings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 461-475.
    11. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    12. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
    13. Chen, Yunmin & Chien, YiLi & Wen, Yi & Yang, C.C., 2021. "Are unconditional lump-sum transfers a good idea?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Bocola, Luigi & Schorfheide, Frank, 2017. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-54.
    15. Winschel, Viktor & Menendez, Renee, 2025. "Monetary Theory of Macro Accounting for Supply Chain Finance," MPRA Paper 123788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Roberto Robatto, 2019. "Cost of Inflation in Inventory Theoretical Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 206-226, April.
    17. Tsang, Kwok Ping & Yang, Zichao, 2021. "The market for bitcoin transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong & Sun, Hongfei, 2013. "A monetary theory with non-degenerate distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2266-2312.
    19. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
    20. Pedro Gomis‐Porqueras & Daniel Sanches, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Money and Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 701-730, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:4:p:199-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.