Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis
AbstractThe AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4025.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Population Policies; Primary Education; Education For All; Adolescent Health; Economic Theory&Research;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2006-10-14 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2006-10-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2006-10-14 (Development)
- NEP-EDU-2006-10-14 (Education)
- NEP-HEA-2006-10-14 (Health Economics)
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