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Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis

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  • Bell, Clive
  • Bruhns, Ramona
  • Gersbach, Hans

Abstract

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4025.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4025

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Related research

Keywords: Population Policies; Primary Education; Education For All; Adolescent Health; Economic Theory&Research;

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References

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  1. Takashi Yamano & Thomas S. Jayne, 2005. "Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary Sschool Attendance in Rural Kenya," Development and Comp Systems 0502017, EconWPA.
  2. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
  3. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  4. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  5. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
  7. Evenson, R.E. & Mwabu, G., 1995. "Household Composition and Expenditures on Human Capital Formation in Kenya," Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center 731, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  8. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Antonio C. David & Carmen A. Li, 2010. "Exploring the links between HIV|AIDS, social capital and development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 941-961.
  3. Martine Audibert, 2011. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," Working Papers halshs-00563389, HAL.
  4. David, Antonio C., 2007. "HIV/AIDS and social capital in a cross-section of countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4263, The World Bank.
  5. Martine Audibert & Pascale Combes Motel & Alassane Drabo, 2012. "Global burden of disease and economic growth," Working Papers halshs-00678713, HAL.
  6. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2008. "Are Boys and Girls Affected Differently When the Household Head Leaves for Good? Evidence from School and Work Choices in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 7040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2008. "Are boys and girls affected differently when the household head leaves for good? Evidence from school and work choices in Colombia," IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies W08/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2013. "Can conditional cash transfers compensate for a father's absence ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6476, The World Bank.
  10. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
  11. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2012. "How children's schooling and work are affected when their father leaves permanently: evidence from Colombia," IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies W12/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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