The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa raises great concern about potential intergenerational effects on children. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. The article distinguishes between effects on boys' and girls' education to understand potential gender differences resulting from adult mortality. We also estimate how adult mortality affects child schooling before as well as after the death occurs. The article also estimates the importance of households' initial asset levels in influencing the relationship between adult mortality and child school attendance. We find that all of these distinctions are important when estimating the magnitude of the effects of adult mortality on child school attendance. The probability that girls in initially poor households will remain in school prior to the death of a working-age adult in the household drops from roughly 88% to 55%. Boys in relatively poor households are less likely than girls to be in school after an adult death. By contrast, we find no clear effects on girls' or boys' education among relatively nonpoor households, either before or after the timing of adult mortality in the household. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality in our data and lagged HIV prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. The evidence indicates that rising AIDS-related adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.
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Volume (Year): 53 (2005) Issue (Month): 3 (April) Pages: 619-53 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML,
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:y:2005:v:53:i:3:p:619-53
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Harold Alderman & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & John A. Maluccio & Susan Watkins, 2001.
"Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data,"
Demographic Research,
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(4), pages 79-124, November.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Alderman, Harold & Watkins, Susan Cotts & Kohler, Hans-Peter & Maluccio, John A. & Behrman, Jere R., 2000.
"Attrition in longitudinal household survey data,"
FCND briefs
96, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
[Downloadable!]
Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002.
"Orphans in Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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