We try to link the distribution of the AIDS epidemic over an African population with the distribution of income. For this purpose, we develop a demo-economic micro-simulation model able to simulate over a fifteen years period the impact of AIDS on household and individual incomes. The model is implemented using a rich set of Ivorian surveys. The results reveal the complexity of the interaction between demographic behavior and the income generating process. The AIDS epidemic seems to hurt more the lower middle class of the Ivorian population, that is the richest of the poor, and confronts survivors of an affected household to downward, although moderate, transitions through the distribution of income. In the absence of other macroeconomic impacts, the main effect of AIDS in Côte d'Ivoire is a shrinking of the size of the economy by around 6% after 15 years, leaving average income per capita, income inequality, and income poverty roughly unchanged. If now the impact on private health expenditures was taken into account, then no doubt that AIDS would clearly increase consumption poverty and decrease welfare. Moreover, if the prospects and patterns of labor demand were significantly affected by AIDS, then again both the overall and microeconomic impacts of the epidemic would appear more dramatic. In any case, the annual cost of antiretroviral treatment remains out of reach for almost all infected persons in Côte d'Ivoire. _________________________________ Nous essayons de relier la distribution de l'épidémie du SIDA sur une population africaine avec la distribution des revenus. A cette fin, nous développons un modèle de micro-simulation démo-économique capable de simuler sur une période de quinze ans l’impact du SIDA sur les revenus des ménages et des individus. Le modèle est mise en place en utilisant des enquêtes ivoiriennes variées. Les résultats des simulations sur une période de 15 ans révèlent la complexité des interactions entre les comportements démographiques et la formation des revenus. L'épidémie paraît toucher un peu plus souvent les moins pauvres des pauvres et confronte les survivants d’un ménage affecté à des baisses de revenu limitées. En l'absence des autres effets macro-économiques l'épidémie du SIDA entraînerait une réduction de la taille de l'économie de la Côte d'Ivoire de 6% en 15 ans, mais affecterait peu le revenu moyen par tête, les inégalités de revenu et la pauvreté. Au niveau micro-économique, la prise en compte des baisses d'activité et de productivité dues à la maladie conduirait évidemment à un diagnostic plus pessimiste en matière de pauvreté. Au niveau macro-économique, si la demande de travail était gravement affectée par l'épidémie, le diagnostic serait là encore aggravé. En tout état de cause, le coût des traitements anti-rétroviraux actuellement disponibles est hors de portée de presque toutes les personnes infectées en Côte d'Ivoire.
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme) in its series Working Papers with number
DT/2002/15.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
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Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002.
"Orphans in Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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