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Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS

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Author Info
Kathleen Beegle
Joachim De Weerdt
Stefan Dercon

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Abstract

This article uses a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both the short- and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data that tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, we examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household, and individual characteristics; the effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 that grew out of baseline households. We find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7% within the first 5 years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?id=doi:10.1086/522895
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Volume (Year): 56 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 299-326
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:56:y:2008:p:299-326

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T. S., 2004. "Measuring the Impacts of Working-Age Adult Mortality on Small-Scale Farm Households in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-119, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grimm, Michael, 2006. "Mortality and survivors' consumption," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 9, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Antony Chapoto & T.S. Jayne, 2005. "Impact of HIV/AIDS-Related Deaths on Rural Farm Households' Welfare in Zambia: Implications for Poverty Reduction Strategies," International Development Collaborative Working Papers ZM-FSRP-WP-15, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  6. Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Grimm, 2006. "Mortality and survivor's consumption," Working Papers DT/2006/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme). [Downloadable!]
  8. Harold Alderman & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & John A. Maluccio & Susan Watkins, 2001. "Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(4), pages 79-124, November. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000. "Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Firman Witoelar, 2005. "Inter-household Allocations within Extended Family: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Working Papers 912, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  16. Kinsey, Bill & Burger, Kees & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1998. "Coping with drought in Zimbabwe: Survey evidence on responses of rural households to risk," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 89-110, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jack, William & Lewis, Maureen, 2009. "Health investments and economic growth : macroeconomic evidence and microeconomic foundations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4877, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julie Litchfield & Thomas McGregor, 2008. "Poverty in Kagera, Tanzania: Characteristics, Causes and Constraints," PRUS Working Papers 42, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ikegami, Munenobu, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania," MPRA Paper 15065, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Toman Omar Mahmoud & Rainer Thiele, 2009. "Does AIDS-Related Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," Kiel Working Papers 1530, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Beegle, Kathleen & Krutikova, Sofya, 2007. "Adult mortality and children's transition into marriage," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4139, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher Ksoll, 2007. "Family Networks and Orphan Caretaking in Tanzania," Economics Series Working Papers 361, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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