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The Impact of AIDS on Income and Human Capital

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  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes
  • Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
  • Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It ex-plores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed bythe literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity andthe reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for threeperiods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids beforereaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generationsso that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that themost affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percentpoorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent.These gures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases thesurvival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 690.

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Date of creation: 12 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:690

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  1. Arne Bigsten & Paul Collier & Stefan Dercon & Marcel Fafchamps & Bernard Gauthier & Jan Willem Gunning & Anders Isaksson & Abena Oduro & Remco Oostendorp & Cathy Pattillo & Måns Söderbom & Francis T, 1998. "Rates of return on physical and human capital in Africa's manufacturing sector," CSAE Working Paper Series 1998-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  3. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  4. Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
  5. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  6. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
  7. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth," Working Papers 2000-02, FEDEA.
  9. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
  10. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  11. Andres Erosa & Tatyana Koreshkova & Diego Restuccia, 2007. "How Important is Human Capital? A Quantitative Theory Assessment of World Income Inequality," Working Papers tecipa-280, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  12. Neal, Derek A & Johnson, William R, 1996. "The Role of Premarket Factors in Black-White Wage Differences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 869-95, October.
  13. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  14. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2004. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 9, Econometric Society.
  15. Marek Kapicka, 2006. "Optimal Income Taxation with Human Capital Accumulation and Limited Record Keeping," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 612-639, October.
  16. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2003. "The Costs of Education, Longevity and the Poverty of Nations," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 472, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  17. repec:bla:restud:v:77:y:2010:i:4:p:1421-1449 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
  19. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  20. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
  21. Trostel, Philip A, 1993. "The Effect of Taxation on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 327-50, April.
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