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On the distributional consequences of epidemics

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Author Info
Raouf Boucekkine
Jean-Pierre Laffargue

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Abstract

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics, and notably its distributional consequences. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations model where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of (junior) adults and children depends on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The model emphasizes the role of orphans. Orphans are not only penalized in the face of death, they are also penalized in the access to education. Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival rates. We specifically study the consequence of a negative shock on adult survival rates in the first period. We prove that while the epidemic has no permanent effect on income distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short and medium run. In particular, the epidemic may imply a worsening in the short and medium run of both economic performance and income distribution. Two opposite mechanisms are isolated: first, the survival rate of children at the end of the first period decreases relatively more in poor than in wealthy families. This decreases the proportion of junior adults with a low endowment of human capital in period 2. Secondly, the number of orphans in period 1 increases in both families. This decreases the proportion of junior adults with a low endowment of human capital in period 2. Therefore, the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase in the medium run if orphans are too penalized in the access to a high level of education.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2009_22.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2009_22

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Related research
Keywords: Epidemics; orphans; income distribution; endogenous survival; medium-term dynamics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth," Working Papers 2000-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nathan D. Grawe & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: Parental Death, Poverty and School Enrollment," Working Papers 183, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2007. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Working Papers 2007_25, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007022, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
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  11. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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