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Growth and enduring epidemic diseases

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  • Bell, Clive
  • Gersbach, Hans

Abstract

This paper analyzes the interplay of human capital formation and economic growth when there is premature adult mortality. Failing adequate insurance arrangements, a long wave of such mortality can so undermine human capital formation as to induce an economic collapse. In nuclear family structures, random matching of partners is superior to assortative mating only if the shock is not too big and initial levels of human capital are not too low. Full pooling of mortality risks with equal treatment of all children in extended families may fend off a general collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. To avoid undesirable effects on expectations, awareness campaigns should be complemented by policies that credibly promise to reduce future mortality. If mortality depends on the general level of human capital, indeterminacy can arise in the form of more than one rational expectations path.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 2083-2103

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:10:p:2083-2103

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Epidemic diseases; HIV/AIDS; Growth; Collapse; Pooling;

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References

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  1. Bruhns, Ramona, 2006. "The Long-run Effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya," MPRA Paper 952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
  3. Amar Hamoudi & Nancy Birdsall, 2004. "AIDS and the Accumulation and Utilisation of Human Capital in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(1), pages i96-i136, July.
  4. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, 2008. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Death and Development," NBER Working Papers 11620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2004. "Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 54645, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  7. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  8. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  10. Evans, David & Miguel, Edward A., 2005. "Orphans and Schooling in Africa: A Longitudinal Analysis," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt14w3s2fh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  11. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1998. "Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Johansson, Lars M., 2007. "Fiscal implications of AIDS in South Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1614-1640, October.
  15. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  16. Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
  17. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2009. "Child Labor And The Education Of A Society," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 220-249, April.
  18. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Jean-Pierre LAFFARGUE, 2009. "On the Distributional Consequences of Epidemics," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  20. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  21. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  22. Gilbert,Christopher L. & Vines,David (ed.), 2006. "The World Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521029018, November.
  23. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  24. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1056, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2005. "Fiscal Policy, Monopolistic Competition and Finite Lives," Discussion Paper 2005-126, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & LAFFARGE, Jean-Pierre, . "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2204, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2012. "The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 369-381.

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