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How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

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Author Info
Raouf Boucekkine
Rodolphe Desbordes
Hélène Latzer

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Abstract

This paper is concerned with the impact of epidemics on economic behavior, and in particular on fertility and schooling. Special attention is paid to the fertility eect, which has been at the heart of a recent controversy around the AIDS crisis. An illustrative model is proposed where agents choose labor supply, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that the optimal response in terms of fertility and labor supply to an epidemic shock depends on the relative strength of two forces at work, deriving from: (i) the induced decrease in the survival probability, and (ii) the impact of epidemics on wages. A comprehensive empirical study is then proposed to disentangle the latter eects in the HIV/AIDS and malaria cases. Using data from 69 developing countries over the period 1980-2004, we nd that HIV/AIDS has a robust negative eect on fertility and a robust positive eect on education, while opposite results are found in the case of malaria. We argue that this discrepancy can be attributed to a sizeable wage eect in the AIDS case while such an eect is rather negligible under malaria at least in the short term, as higher malaria prevalence depresses wages in the long term.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2007_25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_25

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  28. Michael Kremer & Daniel Chen, 2000. "Income-distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility," NBER Working Papers 7530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Hazan, Moshe & Zoabi, Hosny, 2005. "Does Longevity Cause Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2008. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-21, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2009. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Working Papers 2009_22, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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