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Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases

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  • Clive Bell
  • Hans Gersbach

Abstract

This paper studies the formation of human capital and its transmission across generations when premature adult mortality is a salient feature of the demographic landscape, either permanently or in the form of a long-period wave that follows the outbreak of an epidemic. We establish several threshold properties of the model, for such a shock can severely retard economic growth, even to the point of leading to an economic collapse. Premature adult mortality may exacerbate inequality under nuclear family arrangements. Pooling mortality risks with equal treatment of all children may fend off, or even induce, a collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. Awareness campaigns may also trigger a collapse by introducing undesirable expectational feedbacks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1729.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1729

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Keywords: epidemic diseases; HIV/AIDS; growth; collapse; pooling;

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References

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  1. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1998. "Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Rodolphe, DESBORDES & Hélène, LATZER, 2008. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008025, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
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  7. repec:rus:hseeco:71105 is not listed on IDEAS
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  9. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2009. "Child Labor And The Education Of A Society," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 220-249, April.
  10. Evans, David & Miguel, Edward A., 2005. "Orphans and Schooling in Africa: A Longitudinal Analysis," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt14w3s2fh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  14. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
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  24. Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
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  26. Bruhns, Ramona, 2006. "The Long-run Effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya," MPRA Paper 952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2005. "Fiscal Policy, Monopolistic Competition and Finite Lives," Discussion Paper 2005-126, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
  3. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2012. "The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 369-381.
  4. Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2009. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Working Papers 2009_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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