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The Growth economics of epidemics

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Author Info

  • Raouf, BOUCEKKINE

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

  • Bity, DIENE
  • Theophile, AZOMAHOU

Abstract

This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2006021.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 01 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006021

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Related research

Keywords: Epidemics; Human capital; Life expectancy; Growth theory; Spanish flu; AIDS;

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References

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  2. Boucekkine Raouf & Ruiz Tamarit Ramon, 2004. "Imbalance Effects in the Lucas Model: an Analytical Exploration," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
  3. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  4. Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2004. "Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach," Working Papers 2004008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
  5. Economics department, UCL, Louvain,David de la Croix, CORE & Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Dominique Peeters, 2006. "Early literacy achievements, population density and the transition to modern growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 205, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2003. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Working papers 119, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  8. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
  10. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & RUIZ-TAMARIT, José Ramon, . "Special functions for the study of economic dynamics: The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  12. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
  13. Gomez, Manuel A., 2003. "Equilibrium dynamics in the one-sector endogenous growth model with physical and human capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 367-375, November.
  14. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
  15. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  16. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo, 2004. "Endogenous longevity, health and economic growth: a slow growth for a longer life?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10.
  17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 403-17, September.
  19. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00609798 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Curran, Declan & Fröling, Maria, 2010. "Large-scale mortality shocks and the Great Irish Famine 1845-1852," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1302-1314, September.
  3. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Raouf Boucekkine & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Medium term dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 209, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2008. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Working Papers 2008_21, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  6. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00586799 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DIENE, Bity & AZOMAHOU, Théophile, . "Growth economics of epidemics: A review of the theory," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2004, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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