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The Growth economics of epidemics

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Author Info
Raouf, BOUCEKKINE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)
Bity, DIENE
Theophile, AZOMAHOU

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Abstract

This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2006021.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 15 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006021

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Related research
Keywords: Epidemics; Human capital; Life expectancy; Growth theory; Spanish flu; AIDS;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 403-17, September.
  4. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & RUIZ-TAMARIT, Ramon, 2004. "Imbalance effects in the Lucas model: an analytical exploration," CORE Discussion Papers 2004008, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  6. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Dominique Peeters, 2007. "Early Literacy Achievements, Population Density, and the Transition to Modern Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 183-226, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo, 2004. "Endogenous longevity, health and economic growth: a slow growth for a longer life?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  9. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gomez, Manuel A., 2003. "Equilibrium dynamics in the one-sector endogenous growth model with physical and human capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 367-375, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & JosŽ R. , RUIZ-TAMARIT, 2004. "Special functions for the study of economic dynamics : The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2004. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 100, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 346, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raouf Boucekkine & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Medium term dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 209, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007022, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. DelaCruz, Juan, 2007. "A brief contribution to the debate over the impact if HIV/AIDS on economic growth," MPRA Paper 10840, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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