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Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS

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  • Kathleen Beegle
  • Joachim De Weerdt
  • Stefan Dercon

Abstract

This paper uses a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, we examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics; the effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. We find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2007-02.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2007-02

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Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Adult Mortality; Poverty Impact;

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References

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  1. Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2004. "Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach," Working Papers, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics 2004008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
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  13. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
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  15. Lundberg, Mattias & Over, Mead & Mujinja, Phare, 2000. "Sources of financial assistance for households suffering an adult death in Kagera, Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 2508, The World Bank.
  16. Antony Chapoto & T. S. Jayne, 2008. "Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 327-374.
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Cited by:
  1. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Does Prime-Age Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 51-62.
  2. Claudia Olivetti & Francesco Strobbe & Mireille Jacobson, 2011. "Breaking The Net: Family Structure And Street Children In Zambia," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics WP2011-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Christopher Ksoll, 2007. "Family Networks and Orphan Caretaking in Tanzania," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics 361, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Himaz, Rozana, 2009. "The impact of parental death on schooling and subjective wellbeing: Evidence from Ethiopia using longitudinal data," MPRA Paper 21735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kudo, Yuya, 2012. "Marriage as women's old age insurance : evidence from migration and land inheritance practices in rural Tanzania," IDE Discussion Papers, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) 368, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  6. Alem, Yonas, 2014. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Some Evidence from Ethiopia," Discussion Papers, Resources For the Future dp-14-05-efd, Resources For the Future.
  7. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2010. "Does AIDS-Related Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics 18, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  8. Julie Litchfield & Thomas McGregor, 2008. "Poverty in Kagera, Tanzania: Characteristics, Causes and Constraints," PRUS Working Papers, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex 42, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
  9. Beegle, Kathleen & Krutikova, Sofya, 2007. "Adult mortality and children's transition into marriage," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4139, The World Bank.
  10. Kasirye, Ibrahim & Ssewanyana, Sarah N., 2010. "Impacts and determinants of panel survey attrition: The case of Northern Uganda survey 2004-2008," Research Series, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) 127536, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
  11. Ikegami, Munenobu, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania," MPRA Paper 15065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Asadul Islam & Pushkar Maitra, 2008. "Health Shocks And Consumption Smoothing In Rural Households: Does Microcredit Have A Role To Play?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 22/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  13. Alem, Yonas, 2013. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Evidence from Urban Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics 580, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  14. Manoj K. Pandey, 2013. "Elderly's Health Shocks and Household's Ex-ante Poverty in India," ASARC Working Papers, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre 2013-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  15. Hagen, Jens & Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Trofimenko, Natalia, 2010. "Orphanhood and Critical Periods in Children's Human Capital Formation: Long-Run Evidence from North-Western Tanzania," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics 33, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  16. Jean-Noël Senne, 2014. "Death and schooling decisions over the short and long run in rural Madagascar," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 497-528, April.
  17. Jens Hagen & Toman Omar Mahmoud & Natalia Trofimenko, 2010. "Orphanhood and Critical Periods in Children’s Human Capital Formation: Long-Run Evidence from North-Western Tanzania," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1649, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  18. Jack, William & Lewis, Maureen, 2009. "Health investments and economic growth : macroeconomic evidence and microeconomic foundations," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4877, The World Bank.

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