Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pedro de Araujo

    ()
    (Colorado College)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper investigates the effect of HIV/AIDS on steady state output in an overlapping generations economy calibrated to resemble sub-Sahara Africa. I use skill heterogeneity as a proxy for socioeconomic status and test scenarios where the AIDS epidemic affects skills differently. The results indicate that the effects of the epidemic are sensitive to the distribution of the disease across skills. In general, the effect is much greater as the epidemic mainly affects skilled workers. Output is found to be below a no-AIDS output in a range between 3% (10%), when only unskilled workers are affected, and 10% (28%), when only skilled workers affected, whenever the overall infection rate is 7% (20%). When investigating the hypothesis that AIDS affects skilled workers more severely than unskilled at the beginning of the epidemic, with the effect switching as the epidemic becomes more mature, the findings are that the economy can be 8% smaller along the transition path. In all scenarios where the epidemic is temporary, it would take 4 to 5 generations or about 90 years for sub-Saharan Africa to recover.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr/RePEc/PDF/2008/CAEPR2008-014_updated.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2008-014_updated.

    as in new window
    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-014updated

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Wylie Hall Room 105, Bloomington, IN 47405-6620
    Phone: 812-855-1021
    Fax: 812-855-3736
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: HIV/AIDS; capital-skill complementarity; heterogeneity; and sub-Sahara Africa;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
    2. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, April.
    3. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    4. John Duffy & Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, 2004. "Capital-Skill Complementarity? Evidence from a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 327-344, February.
    5. Nicoli Nattrass*, 2003. "Aids, Economic Growth And Income Distribution In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(3), pages 428-454, 09.
    6. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
    7. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    8. Mwabu, Germano & Schultz, T Paul, 2000. "Wage Premiums for Education and Location of South African Workers, by Gender and Race," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 307-34, January.
    9. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
    10. Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam, 2008. "Two-level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 119-143, 03.
    11. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    12. R Bonnel, 2000. "HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 360-379, December.
    13. Fallon, P R & Layard, P R G, 1975. "Capital-Skill Complementarity, Income Distribution, and Output Accounting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 279-301, April.
    14. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
    15. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    16. Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
    17. Deolalikar, A.B. & Evenson, R.E., 1988. "Technology Production And Technology Purchase In Indian Industry: An Econometric Analysis," Papers 556, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    18. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    19. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
    20. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
    21. Pedro Amaral & Erwan Quintin, 2004. "The implications of capital-skill complementarity in economies with large informal sectors," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0404, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-014updated. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.