HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa : A Bayesian Estimation
AbstractIn this paper we estimate the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on monetary poverty. Using a paneldatabase from South Africa, we model the consequences of illness on both labor income andtransfers. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated to HIV/AIDS through using aselection model that includes correlated fixed-effects both in the level and the participationequations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. While no significantimpact of HIV/AIDS on household labor income is found due to households recomposition, asignificant and asymmetric impact on income transfers emerges. For urban populations, we find thatHIV/AIDS has a positive impact on the probability of receiving social and private transfers, servingto marginally reduce poverty, while for rural populations, HIV/AIDS causes a substantial fall inreceived transfers and dramatically increases chronic poverty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2009-12.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Fabrice Murtin & Federica Marzo, 2007. "HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa: a Bayesian Estimation," Cahiers de recherche 07-08, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
- I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
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