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Adult mortality and consumption growth in the age of HIV/AIDS

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Author Info
Beegle, Kathleen
De Weerdt, Joachim
Dercon, Stefan

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Abstract

The authors use a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, they examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics. The effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. The authors find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4082.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4082

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Keywords: Population Policies; Consumption; Housing&Human Habitats; Poverty Lines; Inequality;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T. S., 2004. "Measuring the Impacts of Working-Age Adult Mortality on Small-Scale Farm Households in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-119, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grimm, Michael, 2006. "Mortality and survivors' consumption," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 9, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Antony Chapoto & T.S. Jayne, 2005. "Impact of HIV/AIDS-Related Deaths on Rural Farm Households' Welfare in Zambia: Implications for Poverty Reduction Strategies," International Development Collaborative Working Papers ZM-FSRP-WP-15, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  6. Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:dia:wpaper:dt200613 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Harold Alderman & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & John A. Maluccio & Susan Watkins, 2001. "Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(4), pages 79-124, November. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000. "Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Firman Witoelar, 2005. "Inter-household Allocations within Extended Family: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Working Papers 912, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  16. Kinsey, Bill & Burger, Kees & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1998. "Coping with drought in Zimbabwe: Survey evidence on responses of rural households to risk," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 89-110, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Toman Omar Mahmoud & Rainer Thiele, 2009. "Does AIDS-Related Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," Kiel Working Papers 1530, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jack, William & Lewis, Maureen, 2009. "Health investments and economic growth : macroeconomic evidence and microeconomic foundations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4877, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Asadul Islam & Pushkar Maitra, 2008. "Health Shocks And Consumption Smoothing In Rural Households: Does Microcredit Have A Role To Play?," Monash Economics Working Papers 22/08, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Beegle, Kathleen & Krutikova, Sofya, 2007. "Adult mortality and children's transition into marriage," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4139, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Julie Litchfield & Thomas McGregor, 2008. "Poverty in Kagera, Tanzania: Characteristics, Causes and Constraints," PRUS Working Papers 42, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ikegami, Munenobu, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania," MPRA Paper 15065, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christopher Ksoll, 2007. "Family Networks and Orphan Caretaking in Tanzania," Economics Series Working Papers 361, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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