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Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review

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  • Louise Roos

Abstract

A number of methods and models have been used to analyse the economic impacts of HIV/AIDS. The overall consensus is that depending on the severity of the epidemic, HIV/AIDS holds serious negative consequences for economic growth and economic welfare. The aim of this paper is to give a broad overview of the methodologies used in analysing the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on various countries, including South Africa. The literature review is structured by method of analysis. For each method, selected papers are briefly described. This paper is set out as follows: Section 1 describes studies using econometric estimation. This method is useful in cross-country analysis and allows for the impact of the disease to be compared internationally. Section.2 describes studies applying country-specific macroeconometric models to examine the impact of HIV/AIDS. Section 3 describes the use of aggregate growth models. These models extend the Solow model, allowing HIV/AIDS to be captured via the reduction in employment and population growth. These country-specific models are useful in analysing the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and per capita income. Section 4 describes the use of country-specific CGE models in the analysis of HIV/AIDS. Section 5 reviews other methods used for analysing the impact of HIV/AIDS on an economy. These methods include overlapping-generations models, demographic models and sector-specific analysis. The paper ends with concluding remarks.

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Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-233.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-233

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Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Africa;

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  1. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 02/195, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  3. Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques), Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  5. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(1), pages 22-40.
  7. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  8. CN Morris & DR Burdge & EJ Cheevers, 2000. "Economic Impact of HIV Infection in a Cohort of Male Sugar Mill Workers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 413-419, December.
  9. Jane Fortson, 2008. "The gradient in sub-saharan Africa: Socioeconomic status and HIV/AIDS," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 303-322, May.
  10. Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2008. "Disease dynamics and economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 145-168.
  11. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
  13. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2005. "The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity," Bulletins, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center 12976, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  14. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  15. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
  16. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  17. Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  18. R Bonnel, 2000. "HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 360-379, December.
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