Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review
AbstractA number of methods and models have been used to analyse the economic impacts of HIV/AIDS. The overall consensus is that depending on the severity of the epidemic, HIV/AIDS holds serious negative consequences for economic growth and economic welfare. The aim of this paper is to give a broad overview of the methodologies used in analysing the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on various countries, including South Africa. The literature review is structured by method of analysis. For each method, selected papers are briefly described. This paper is set out as follows: Section 1 describes studies using econometric estimation. This method is useful in cross-country analysis and allows for the impact of the disease to be compared internationally. Section.2 describes studies applying country-specific macroeconometric models to examine the impact of HIV/AIDS. Section 3 describes the use of aggregate growth models. These models extend the Solow model, allowing HIV/AIDS to be captured via the reduction in employment and population growth. These country-specific models are useful in analysing the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and per capita income. Section 4 describes the use of country-specific CGE models in the analysis of HIV/AIDS. Section 5 reviews other methods used for analysing the impact of HIV/AIDS on an economy. These methods include overlapping-generations models, demographic models and sector-specific analysis. The paper ends with concluding remarks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-233.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 11th Floor, Menzies Building, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3168
Phone: 03 9905 2398
Fax: 03 9905 2426
Web page: http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-09-26 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-09-26 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-HEA-2013-09-26 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 02/195, International Monetary Fund.
- Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
- Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2008. "Disease dynamics and economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 145-168.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
- Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2005. "The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity," Bulletins 12976, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
- R Bonnel, 2000. "HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 360-379, December.
- Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
- Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
- CN Morris & DR Burdge & EJ Cheevers, 2000. "Economic Impact of HIV Infection in a Cohort of Male Sugar Mill Workers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 413-419, December.
- Jane Fortson, 2008. "The gradient in sub-saharan Africa: Socioeconomic status and HIV/AIDS," Demography, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 303-322, May.
- Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
- David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995.
"Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
- Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-202, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.