Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model
AbstractWe simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities than to supply-side effects such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-202.
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, vol. 7, iss. 1, 2010, article 75.
Influenza epidemic Quarterly CGE modelling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-07-17 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-HEA-2010-07-17 (Health Economics)
- NEP-TUR-2010-07-17 (Tourism Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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