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AIDS and income distribution in Africa. A micro-simulation study for Cˆote d’Ivoire

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  • Michael Grimm

    (University of G¨ottingen, Department of Economics)

  • Denis Cogneau

    (DIAL-IRD, Paris)

Abstract

We develop a demo-economic micro-simulation model able to simulate over a fifteen years period the impact of AIDS on household and individual incomes. When focusing on the labor supply effects of over- mortality, the main effect of AIDS in Cˆote d’Ivoire is a shrinking of the size of the economy by around 6% after 15 years, leaving average income per capita, income inequality, and poverty roughly unchanged. The dependency ratio is not much modified by the epidemic. These conclusions do not seem to depend on the degree of heterogeneity and clustering of the HIV/AIDS-infections over the population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Labor and Demography with number 0408006.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 10 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0408006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 51
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: AIDS; labor supply; income distribution;

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  1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 0042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Wachter, Kenneth W. & Knodel, John E. & VanLandingham, Mark, 2003. "Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in Thailand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 193-206, January.
  6. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  9. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  10. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  11. Magnac, Th, 1991. "Segmented or Competitive Labor Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 165-87, January.
  12. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  13. Kremer, Michael, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-73, May.
  14. Barnett, Tony & Blaikie, Piers, 1989. "AIDS and food production in East and Central Africa : A research outline," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 2-6, February.
  15. Evans, David & Miguel, Edward A., 2005. "Orphans and Schooling in Africa: A Longitudinal Analysis," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt14w3s2fh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  16. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  17. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
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Cited by:
  1. Denis Cogneau & Anne-Sophie Robilliard, 2004. "Poverty Alleviation Policies in Madagascar: a Micro-Macro Simulation Model," Working Papers DT/2004/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Nov 2004.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Derek Chen & Michael Grimm, 2004. "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," Development and Comp Systems 0405006, EconWPA.
  3. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2006. "Socioeconomic status, sexual behavior, and differential AIDS mortality: evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 393-407, August.

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