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AIDS and income distribution in Africa. A micro-simulation study for Cˆote d’Ivoire

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Author Info
Michael Grimm (University of G¨ottingen, Department of Economics)
Denis Cogneau (DIAL-IRD, Paris)

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Abstract

We develop a demo-economic micro-simulation model able to simulate over a fifteen years period the impact of AIDS on household and individual incomes. When focusing on the labor supply effects of over- mortality, the main effect of AIDS in Cˆote d’Ivoire is a shrinking of the size of the economy by around 6% after 15 years, leaving average income per capita, income inequality, and poverty roughly unchanged. The dependency ratio is not much modified by the epidemic. These conclusions do not seem to depend on the degree of heterogeneity and clustering of the HIV/AIDS-infections over the population.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Labor and Demography with number 0408006.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 10 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0408006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 51
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: AIDS; labor supply; income distribution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J - Labor and Demographic Economics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barnett, Tony & Blaikie, Piers, 1989. "AIDS and food production in East and Central Africa : A research outline," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 2-6, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Becker, Gary S, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1063-93, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Magnac, Th, 1991. "Segmented or Competitive Labor Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 165-87, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "The distribution of AIDS over the population in Africa Hypothesis building from individual answers to a Demographic and Health Survey with an application to Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/02, DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme). [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Maitland MacFarlan & Silvia Sgherri, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Derek Chen & Michael Grimm, 2004. "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," Development and Comp Systems 0405006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Denis Cogneau & Anne-Sophie Robilliard, 2004. "Poverty Alleviation Policies in Madagascar: a Micro-Macro Simulation Model," Working Papers DT/2004/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme), revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
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