SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with?catching-upeffect?asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Dalloz in its journal Revue d'économie politique.
Volume (Year): Volume 116 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm
economic growth; health; HIV/AIDS; endogenous growth model;
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