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Measuring the Impacts of Prime-age Adult Death on Rural Households in Kenya

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  • Yamano, Takashi
  • Jayne, Thomas S.

Abstract

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how primeage adult mortality affects rural households’ size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household’s crop production. However, these results are sensitive to age ranges chosen. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members’ mortality has less dramatic effects on the households’ agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics in its series Food Security Collaborative Working Papers with number 55152.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:midcwp:55152

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Postal: Justin S. Morrill Hall of Agriculture, 446 West Circle Dr., Rm 202, East Lansing, MI 48824-1039
Phone: (517) 355-4563
Fax: (517) 432-1800
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Web page: http://www.aec.msu.edu/agecon/
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Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Kenya; agricultural production; adult death; Health Economics and Policy; Q18;

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  1. Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
  2. M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000. "Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December.
  3. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 403-17, September.
  4. Udry, Christopher, 1996. "Gender, Agricultural Production, and the Theory of the Household," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1010-46, October.
  5. Tibaijuka, Anna Kajumulo, 1997. "AIDS and economic welfare in peasant agriculture: Case studies from Kagabiro village, Kagera region, Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 963-975, June.
  6. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alderman, Harold & Behrman, Jere R. & Kohler, Hans-Peter & Maluccio, John A. & Cotts Watkins, Susan, 2000. "Attrition in longitudinal household survey data - some tests for three developing-country samples," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2447, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ueyama, Mika, 2007. "Mortality, mobility, and schooling outcomes among orphans: Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 710, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2004. "Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 54645, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  3. Eicher, Carl K., 2004. "Rebuilding Africa'S Scientific Capacity In Food And Agriculture," Staff Papers 11543, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  4. Takashi Yamano, 2007. "The long-term impacts of orphanhood on education attainment and land inheritance among adults in rural Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(2-3), pages 141-149, 09.
  5. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
  6. Gebreselassie, Kidist & Price, Lisa & Wesseler, Justus & van Ierland, Ekko, 2008. "Impacts of HIV/AIDS on labour allocation and agrobiodiversity depend on the stage of the epidemic: case studies in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 25608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Donovan, Cynthia & Bailey, Linda & Mpyisi, Edson & Weber, Michael T., 2003. "Prime-Age Adult Morbidity and Mortality in Rural Rwanda: Effects on Household Income, Agricultural Production, and Food Security Strategies," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55387, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  8. Kristjanson, Patricia & Krishna, Anirudh & Radeny, Maren & Nindo, W., 2004. "Pathways out of Poverty in Western Kenya and the Role of Livestock," PPLPI Working Papers 23779, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative.
  9. Martine Visser & Frikkie Booysen, 2004. "Determinants of the choice of health care facility utilised by individuals in HIV/AIDS-affected households in the Free State province of South Africa," SALDRU/CSSR Working Papers 087, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
  10. Beegle, Kathleen, 2003. "Labor effects of adult mortality in Tanzanian households," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3062, The World Bank.
  11. Ndirangu, Lydia K., 2008. "Effects of Ill Health and Weather Variability on Savings," 2007 Second International Conference, August 20-22, 2007, Accra, Ghana 52151, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
  12. Gebreselassie, Kidist & Wesseler, Justus & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2007. "The Effect of HIV/AIDS Driven Labor Organization on Agrobiodiversity: an Empirical Study in Ethiopia," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7929, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  13. Barrett, Christopher B., 2003. "Rural Poverty Dynamics: Development Policy Implications," Working Papers 127243, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  14. Ndirangu, Lydia K. & Kimalu, Paul, 2004. "The Effects of HIV/Aids on Agricultural Production and Poverty in Kenya," 2004 Inaugural Symposium, December 6-8, 2004, Nairobi, Kenya 9538, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).

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