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¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?

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  • José Cuesta

Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de los efectos del VIH/SIDA en el crecimiento económico cuando la epidemia alcanza una etapa madura, por contraste con estudios anteriores concentrados en las etapas de expansión, como en el caso de los países africanos. Simulaciones en Honduras, epicentro de la epidemia en Centroamérica, muestran que es poco probable que el SIDA constituya una amenaza para el crecimiento económico, bien sea por los canales laborales o los de acumulación de capital; se calcula que la dolencia tendrá un efecto económico valorado entre 0. 007 y 0. 27 puntos porcentuales de crecimiento del PIB anualmente durante el período 2001-2010. Del mismo modo, un incremento del gasto por concepto de prevención, subsidios oficiales al tratamiento y acceso al tratamiento no constituye un riesgo para las perspectivas de crecimiento económico. Factores críticos que reducen el crecimiento económico en África (como por ejemplo, las reducciones del capital humano y las fluctuaciones relativas de las capacidades) no tienen la misma fortaleza en Honduras.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4568.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4568

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  1. S Nicholls & R Mc Lean & K TheodoreR Henry & B Camara & Team, 2000. "Modelling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the English Speaking Caribbean," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 405-412, December.
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  13. Bell, Clive & Bruhns, Ramona & Gersbach, Hans, 2006. "Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4025, The World Bank.
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