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¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?

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Author Info
José Cuesta

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Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de los efectos del VIH/SIDA en el crecimiento económico cuando la epidemia alcanza una etapa madura, por contraste con estudios anteriores concentrados en las etapas de expansión, como en el caso de los países africanos. Simulaciones en Honduras, epicentro de la epidemia en Centroamérica, muestran que es poco probable que el SIDA constituya una amenaza para el crecimiento económico, bien sea por los canales laborales o los de acumulación de capital; se calcula que la dolencia tendrá un efecto económico valorado entre 0. 007 y 0. 27 puntos porcentuales de crecimiento del PIB anualmente durante el período 2001-2010. Del mismo modo, un incremento del gasto por concepto de prevención, subsidios oficiales al tratamiento y acceso al tratamiento no constituye un riesgo para las perspectivas de crecimiento económico. Factores críticos que reducen el crecimiento económico en África (como por ejemplo, las reducciones del capital humano y las fluctuaciones relativas de las capacidades) no tienen la misma fortaleza en Honduras.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4568.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4568

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  1. Cuesta, Jose, 2006. "Political Space, Pro-Poor Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy in Honduras," MPRA Paper 12354, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robalino, David A. & Voetberg, Albertus & Picazo, Oscar, 2002. "The macroeconomic impacts of AIDS in Kenya estimating optimal reduction targets for the HIV/AIDS incidence rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 195-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gonzalo Salinas & Markus Haacker, 2006. "HIV/AIDS: The Impact on Poverty and Inequality," IMF Working Papers 06/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ainsworth, Martha & Over, Mead, 1994. "AIDS and African Development," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 203-40, July.
  5. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bedi, Arjun S & Gaston, Noel, 1997. "Returns to Endogenous Education: The Case of Honduras," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 519-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 02/195, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. S Nicholls & R Mc Lean & K TheodoreR Henry & B Camara & Team, 2000. "Modelling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the English Speaking Caribbean," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 405-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Meyer, S L & Lasser, M & Reekie, W D, 1994. "Economics and the Treatment of AIDS: A Preliminary Assessment," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1093-98, November.
  13. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Joan-Ramon Borrell, 2007. "Pricing and patents of HIV/AIDS drugs in developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 505-518. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bell, Clive & Bruhns, Ramona & Gersbach, Hans, 2006. "Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4025, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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