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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

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  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (University of Lausanne and Centre for Economic Policy Research and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Kenza Benhima

    (University of Lausanne and Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Yannick Kalantzis

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. We study a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, we assume limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. We analyze the optimal exchange rate policy by modelling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Our main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. We also show that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 092014.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:092014

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References

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  1. Olivier Jeanne, 2012. "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 18404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Song, Zheng Michael & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2009. "Growing like China," CEPR Discussion Papers 7149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
  5. Bacchetta, P. & Benhima, K. & Kalantzis, Y., 2012. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?," Working papers 406, Banque de France.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  7. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-88, May.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  9. Yang, Dennis T. & Zhang, Junsen & Zhou, Shaojie, 2011. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," IZA Discussion Papers 5465, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2012. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Bianchi, Javier, 2009. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 15114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric Young, 2011. "Financial Crises and Macro-Prudential Policies," Research Department Publications 4710, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  13. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 18431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  17. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  18. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2012. "Productivity Growth of the Non-Tradable Sectors in China," Working Papers 082012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. China is doing is right with managing its exchange rate
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-11-11 17:24:00
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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2011. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  2. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2013. "Guidelines for Exploiting Natural Resource Wealth," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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