# INFORMS

# Management Science

Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA

Phone: +1-443-757-3500

Fax: 443-757-3515

Web page: http://www.informs.org/

Email:

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Phone: +1-443-757-3500

Fax: 443-757-3515

Web page: http://www.informs.org/

Email:

More information through EDIRC

**For corrections or technical questions regarding this series, please contact (Mirko Janc)**

**Series handle:**repec:inm:ormnsc

**ISSN:**0025-1909

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### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 9

**1153-1163 Optimal Capacity Expansion Planning When There are Learning Effects***by*Randall S. Hiller & Jeremy F. Shapiro**1164-1176 Incorporating Learning Curve Analysis into Medium-Term Capacity Planning Procedures: A Simulation Experiment***by*Timothy L. Smunt**1177-1185 A Generalized Quantity Discount Pricing Model to Increase Supplier's Profits***by*Hau L. Lee & Meir J. Rosenblatt**1186-1205 Forecasting Error Evaluation in Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Production-Inventory Systems***by*T. S. Lee & Everett E. Adam, Jr.**1206-1217 Detection of Nonstationarity in Hydrologic Time Series***by*A. Ramachandra Rao & G. H. Yu**1218-1221 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 8

**909-932 A Survey of Exact Algorithms for the Simple Assembly Line Balancing Problem***by*\.Ilker Baybars**933-947 Financial Futures Hedging Via Goal Programming***by*Ramesh Sharda & Kathryn D. Musser**948-962 Search Theory and the Manufacturing Progress Function***by*John F. Muth**963-974 Arbitrating a Dispute: A Decision Analytic Approach***by*Jehoshua Eliashberg**975-981 Inventory Service-Level Measures: Convexity and Approximation***by*Paul Zipkin**982-988 The Effect of Commonality on Safety Stock in a Simple Inventory Model***by*Kenneth R. Baker & Michael J. Magazine & Henry L. W. Nuttle**989-1006 Heuristics for Multilevel Lot-Sizing with a Bottleneck***by*Peter J. Billington & John O. McClain & L. Joseph Thomas**1007-1014 A Generalized Network Formulation of the Pairwise Comparison Consensus Ranking Model***by*Jonathan Barzilai & Wade D. Cook & Moshe Kress**1015-1028 Game Theory and Cost Allocation Problems***by*S. H. Tijs & T. S. H. Driessen**1029-1039 A Game Theoretic Approach to Collections and Disbursements***by*Yair E. Orgler & Yair Tauman**1040-1060 Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races***by*Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman**1061-1063 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 7

**773-790 Inventory Optimization in the U.S. Petroleum Industry: Empirical Analysis and Implications for Energy Emergency Policy***by*R. Glenn Hubbard & Robert J. Weiner**791-805 Lead Users: A Source of Novel Product Concepts***by*Eric von Hippel**806-821 New Product Strategy in Small Technology-Based Firms: A Pilot Study***by*Marc H. Meyer & Edward B. Roberts**822-830 The Relation Between Research and Development Project Performance and Technical Communication in a Developing Country---Afghanistan***by*Yar M. Ebadi & David A. Dilts**831-840 The Marriage Tax***by*Jane M. Fraser**841-855 Axiomatic Foundation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process***by*Thomas L. Saaty**856-869 Improved Penalties for Fixed Cost Linear Programs Using Lagrangean Relaxation***by*A. Victor Cabot & S. Selcuk Erenguc**870-877 True Interest Cost in Municipal Bond Bidding: An Integer Programming Approach***by*Robert M. Nauss**878-889 An Adaptive Filter for Estimating Spatially-Varying Parameters: Application to Modeling Police Hours Spent in Response to Calls for Service***by*Stuart A. Foster & Wilpen L. Gorr**890-905 Flexible Manufacturing Systems: A Review of Analytical Models***by*J. A. Buzacott & David D. Yao**906-907 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 6

**645-659 Market Share Rewards to Pioneering Brands: An Empirical Analysis and Strategic Implications***by*Glen L. Urban & Theresa Carter & Steven Gaskin & Zofia Mucha**660-672 On the Minimum Violations Ranking of a Tournament***by*Iqbal Ali & Wade D. Cook & Moshe Kress**673-682 Uncertainty, Experience and the "Winner's Curse" in OCS Lease Bidding***by*Otis W. Gilley & Gordon V. Karels & Robert P. Leone**683-695 Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts***by*Heejoon Kang**696-713 The Bias of Schedules and Playoff Systems in Professional Sports***by*Howard J. Weiss**714-730 A Stochastic Inventory Model Incorporating Intra-Year Purchases and Accounting Tax Incentives***by*Gary C. Biddle & R. Kipp Martin**731-738 A Sequencing Problem with Release Dates and Clustered Jobs***by*Marc E. Posner**739-750 Multiattribute Bayesian Acceptance Sampling Plans Under Nondestructive Inspection***by*Kwei Tang & Robert Plante & Herbert Moskowitz**751-763 A Two-Moment Approximation for the Mean Waiting Time in the GI/G/s Queue***by*Toshikazu Kimura**764-767 Note---Patience is a Virtue in a Simple Model of Repetitively Joining a Queue***by*Colin E. Bell**768-770 Note---A Remark on Optimality of Control Limit Rules***by*Antonín Le\v{s}anovský**771-772 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 5

**513-513 Organization Design: Introduction to the Focused Issue***by*Arie Y. Lewin & George P. Huber**514-538 Determining Organizational Effectiveness: Another Look, and an Agenda for Research***by*Arie Y. Lewin & John W. Minton**539-553 Effectiveness as Paradox: Consensus and Conflict in Conceptions of Organizational Effectiveness***by*Kim S. Cameron**554-571 Organizational Information Requirements, Media Richness and Structural Design***by*Richard L. Daft & Robert H. Lengel**572-589 The Decision-Making Paradigm of Organizational Design***by*George P. Huber & Reuben R. McDaniel**590-607 Central Problems in the Management of Innovation***by*Andrew H. Van de Ven**608-621 Inertia, Environments, and Strategic Choice: A Quasi-Experimental Design for Comparative-Longitudinal Research***by*Elaine Romanelli & Michael L. Tushman**622-642 Virtual Positions and Power***by*Kenneth D. Mackenzie**643-644 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 4

**389-402 The Use of Screening in Policy Analysis***by*Warren E. Walker**403-412 Safety Stocks in MRP---Systems with Emergency Setups for Components***by*Robert C. Carlson & Candace A. Yano**413-429 A Comparison of Strategies to Dampen Nervousness in MRP Systems***by*Joseph D. Blackburn & Dean H. Kropp & Robert A. Millen**430-454 A Comparative Evaluation of Heuristic Line Balancing Techniques***by*F. Brian Talbot & James H. Patterson & William V. Gehrlein**455-463 A Cost-Based Methodology for Stochastic Line Balancing with Intermittent Line Stoppages***by*Fred N. Silverman & John C. Carter**464-479 Scheduling with Multiple Performance Measures: The One-Machine Case***by*Rosser T. Nelson & Rakesh K. Sarin & Richard L. Daniels**480-498 The Ability of Nash's Theory of Cooperative Games to Predict the Outcomes of Buyer-Seller Negotiations: A Dyad-Level Test***by*Scott A. Neslin & Leonard Greenhalgh**499-510 Forecasting Data Published at Irregular Time Intervals Using an Extension of Holt's Method***by*David J. Wright**511-512 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 3

**257-271 Forecasting When Pattern Changes Occur Beyond the Historical Data***by*Robert Carbone & Spyros Makridakis**272-282 Optimal Timing of Account Audits in Internal Control***by*Richard C. Morey & David A. Dittman**283-288 A Parametric Approach to Stochastic Dominance: The Lognormal Case***by*Yoram Kroll & Haim Levy**289-297 Using Order Statistics to Estimate Real Estate Bid Distributions***by*Keith C. Brown & Deborah J. Brown**298-303 Expert Resolution***by*Robert L. Winkler**303-306 Another Look at an Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution***by*Dennis V. Lindley**306-312 Comments on Some Axioms for Combining Expert Judgments***by*Mark J. Schervish**312-314 Calibration and the Aggregation of Probabilities***by*Robert T. Clemen**315-321 Calibration and the Expert Problem***by*S. French**321-328 Observations on Expert Aggregation***by*Peter A. Morris**329-340 Delays for Customers from Different Arrival Streams to a Queue***by*Susan L. Albin**341-349 Preemptive Scheduling of Uniform Machines by Ordinary Network Flow Techniques***by*A. Federgruen & H. Groenevelt**350-359 The Multi-Item Capacitated Lot Size Problem: Error Bounds of Manne's Formulations***by*Gabriel R. Bitran & Hirofumi Matsuo**360-373 Extending Planning Languages to Include Optimization Capabilities***by*Asim Roy & L. S. Lasdon & J. Lordeman**374-380 Analysis and Generalisation of a Multivariate Exponential Smoothing Model***by*A. C. Harvey**381-382 Note---Erratum: A Computational Error in a Nonlinear Programming Example***by*Denis T. Clements & Frederick B. Buoni & Ambrose Goicoechea**382-385 Note---Rolling Back Decision Trees Requires the Independence Axiom!***by*Irving H. LaValle & Kenneth R. Wapman**385-385 Erratum to: "Piecewise Loglinear Estimation of Efficient Production Surfaces"***by*Rajiv D. Banker & Ajay Maindiratta**386-387 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 2

**139-155 An LP Planning Model for a Mental Health Community Support System***by*H. Stephen Leff & Maqbool Dada & Stephen C. Graves**156-172 The Intellectual Development of Management Information Systems, 1972--1982: A Co-Citation Analysis***by*Mary J. Culnan**173-181 Patents and Innovation: An Empirical Study***by*Edwin Mansfield**182-193 When Does Lag Structure Really Matter in Optimizing Advertising Expenditures?***by*Wesley A. Magat & John M. McCann & Richard C. Morey**194-205 A Market Entry Timing Model for New Technologies***by*Shlomo Kalish & Gary L. Lilien**206-224 A Variable Buffer-Size Model and Its Use in Analyzing Closed Queueing Networks with Blocking***by*Rajan Suri & Gregory W. Diehl**225-236 A Homogeneous Industry Model of Resource Allocation to Basic Research and Its Policy Implications***by*Prafulla Joglekar & Morris Hamburg**237-243 Note---Notions of Efficiency and Their Reference Sets***by*Rolf Färe & Worthen Hunsaker**244-251 Note---Naive Diversification and Portfolio Risk---A Note***by*Ron Bird & Mark Tippett**251-253 Note---Comment on "A Perturbation Scheme to Improve Hillier's Solution to the Facilities Layout Problem"***by*Bharat K. Kaku & Gerald L. Thompson**253-254 Note---"A Perturbation Scheme to Improve Hillier's Solution to the Facilities Layout Problem": A Clarification***by*Christopher J. Picone & Wilbert E. Wilhelm**255-256 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1986, Volume 32, Issue 1

**1-13 Research Opportunities in the Decision and Management Sciences***by*John D. C. Little**14-29 Optimal Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policies: A Steady State Analysis***by*Shmuel S. Oren & Shao Hong Wan**30-44 A Comparative Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Translog Methods: An Illustrative Study of Hospital Production***by*Rajiv D. Banker & Robert F. Conrad & Robert P. Strauss**45-55 Subjective Probability and the Prisoner's Dilemma***by*John G. Wilson**56-60 "Lottery Equivalents": Reduction of the Certainty Effect Problem in Utility Assessment***by*Mark McCord & Richard de Neufville**61-75 An Interactive Branch-and-Bound Algorithm for Multiple Criteria Optimization***by*Odile Marcotte & Richard M. Soland**76-86 The Dynamics of Plant Layout***by*Meir J. Rosenblatt**87-112 A Study of Organizational Effectiveness and its Predictors***by*Kim Cameron**113-125 Optimal and Heuristic Procedures for Component Lot-Splitting in Multi-Stage Manufacturing Systems***by*Jaya P. Moily**126-135 Piecewise Loglinear Estimation of Efficient Production Surfaces***by*Rajiv D. Banker & Ajay Maindiratta**136-137 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 12

**1475-1491 A Tactical Decision Algorithm for the Optimal Dispatching of Oil Spill Cleanup Equipment***by*Harilaos N. Psaraftis & Babis O. Ziogas**1492-1498 On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results***by*Anthony E. Bopp**1499-1508 Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results***by*Alison Hubbard Ashton & Robert H. Ashton**1509-1522 A Multiobjective Discrete Optimization Model for Land Allocation***by*Kenneth C. Gilbert & David D. Holmes & Richard E. Rosenthal**1523-1532 Optimal Capacity Expansion Over an Infinite Horizon***by*James C. Bean & Robert L. Smith**1533-1546 Branch and Bound Experiments in Convex Nonlinear Integer Programming***by*Omprakash K. Gupta & A. Ravindran**1547-1568 The Impact of Decision Models on Federal Coal Leasing***by*D. A. Gulley & D. M. Mei**1569-1585 A New Product Adoption Model with Price, Advertising, and Uncertainty***by*Shlomo Kalish**1586-1588 Note---Opposition of Interest in Subjective Bayesian Theory***by*Joseph B. Kadane**1589-1592 Note---A Note on the Use of the CAPM as a Strategic Planning Tool***by*Anthony E. Boardman & Norman E. Carruthers**1592-1596 Note---A Note on Computing Periodic Inspection Policies***by*Carl R. Schultz

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 11

**1335-1347 An Integer Nonlinear Goal Programming Model for the Deployment of State Highway Patrol Units***by*Bernard W. Taylor, III & Laurence J. Moore & Edward R. Clayton & K. Roscoe Davis & Terry R. Rakes**1348-1364 An Experimental Evaluation of Graphical and Color-Enhanced Information Presentation***by*Izak Benbasat & Albert S. Dexter**1365-1371 A Method of Multiattribute Decision Making with Incomplete Information***by*M. Weber**1372-1389 Information Acquisition and the Adoption of New Technology***by*Kevin F. McCardle**1390-1402 Beta in Linear Risk Tolerance Economies***by*Robert R. Grauer**1403-1408 Estimating Market Model Betas: A Comparison of Random Coefficient Methods and Their Ability to Correctly Identify Random Variation***by*Bill McDonald**1409-1415 Scheduling to Minimize Maximum Workload***by*Hans-Jakob Lüthi & Andrés Polyméris**1416-1430 98%-Effective Integer-Ratio Lot-Sizing for One-Warehouse Multi-Retailer Systems***by*Robin Roundy**1431-1439 A Note on Competitive Bidding with Asymmetric Information***by*Rafael Rob**1440-1450 On the Replenishment of Repair Kit Inventories for Systems with Life Distributions of Phase Type***by*Charles E. Wells & John L. Bryant**1451-1470 A State Space Modeling Approach for Time Series Forecasting***by*Tep Sastri**1471-1473 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 10

**1199-1212 Decision Analysis Models for Social Attitudes Toward Inequity***by*Charles M. Harvey**1213-1231 Probability Versus Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement: Are they Equivalent?***by*John C. Hershey & Paul J. H. Schoemaker**1232-1236 Options on Commodity Forward Contracts***by*Edward O. Thorp**1237-1246 Forecasting Trends in Time Series***by*Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie**1247-1256 A Multi-Echelon Inventory Model for a Repairable Item with One-for-One Replenishment***by*Stephen C. Graves**1257-1271 An Interactive Decomposable Heuristic for Project Selection***by*Tomislav Mandakovic & William E. Souder**1272-1285 Project Selection Decision Making Linked to a Dynamic Environment***by*G. Edward Fox & Norman R. Baker**1286-1299 Continuous-Review Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem with Stochastic Demand***by*Marc A. De Bodt & Stephen C. Graves**1300-1311 A Lagrangean Based Branch and Bound Algorithm for Single Machine Sequencing with Precedence Constraints to Minimize Total Weighted Completion Time***by*C. N. Potts**1312-1331 An Improved Successive Linear Programming Algorithm***by*Jianzhong Zhang & Nae-Heon Kim & L. Lasdon**1332-1334 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 9

**1055-1071 The Impact of Interorganizational Manpower Flows on the Innovation Process***by*John E. Ettlie**1072-1083 Optimization of Bank Transit Check Clearing Operations***by*Robert M. Nauss & Robert E. Markland**1084-1105 Consumption Experience and Sales Promotion Expenditure***by*Claes Fornell & William T. Robinson & Birger Wernerfelt**1106-1128 New Polynomial Shortest Path Algorithms and Their Computational Attributes***by*Fred Glover & Darwin D. Klingman & Nancy V. Phillips & Robert F. Schneider**1129-1141 The Dynamics of Organizational Proximity***by*Peter R. Monge & Lynda White Rothman & Eric M. Eisenberg & Katherine I. Miller & Kenneth K. Kirste**1142-1149 Optimal Compensation for Data-Sharing in Registration Processes***by*Klaus Brockhoff**1150-1160 Bayes Solution to Dynamic Inventory Models Under Unknown Demand Distribution***by*Katy S. Azoury**1161-1174 Balancing Mixed Model Lines with In-Process Inventories***by*Amiya K. Chakravarty & Avraham Shtub**1175-1190 The Optimal Acquisition of Automation to Enhance the Productivity of Labor***by*Cheryl Gaimon**1191-1195 Note---Rankings from Round-Robin Tournaments***by*Michael Stob**1195-1195 Reply---On "Rankings from Round-Robin Tournaments" by Professor Michael Stob***by*Stephen Goddard**1196-1198 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 8

**919-927 Subjective Stochastic Dominance, Put Writing, and Stock Purchases with Extensions to Option Pricing and Portfolio Composition***by*Claude G. Henin & William F. Rentz**928-939 The Dynamics of Prices and Market Shares Over the Product Life Cycle***by*Birger Wernerfelt**940-958 Investment Planning and Arm's Length Control in a Nationalised Industry***by*Spyros K. Lioukas**959-969 On the Joint Decisions of R&D and Technology Adoption***by*Tom K. Lee**970-987 The Effects of Task Size and Similarity on the Decision Behavior of Bank Loan Officers***by*Stanley F. Biggs & Jean C. Bedard & Brian G. Gaber & Thomas J. Linsmeier**988-997 An Autoregressive Process for Beta Random Variables***by*Ed McKenzie**998-1010 Investing in Reduced Setups in the EOQ Model***by*Evan L. Porteus**1011-1018 Allocation of Servers for Stochastic Service Stations with One Overflow Station***by*Richard Serfozo**1019-1029 An Adaptive Filtering Procedure for Estimating Regression Quantiles***by*Wilpen L. Gorr & Cheng Hsu**1030-1052 Heuristics in an Air Pollution Control Cost Model: The "AIRCOST" Model of the Electric Utility Industry***by*Barry G. Silverman**1053-1054 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 7

**785-799 Risk/Return Performance of Diversified Firms***by*Richard A. Bettis & Vijay Mahajan**800-813 A New Measure of Attributable Risk for Public Health Applications***by*Louis A. Cox, Jr.**814-828 Parallel Funding of R&D Tasks with Probabilistic Outcomes***by*Jonathan F. Bard**829-839 Applications of Integer Programming in Radio Frequency Management***by*Kamlesh Mathur & Harvey M. Salkin & Koichi Nishimura & Susumu Morito**840-846 A Note on Stochastic Shop Models in Which Jobs have the Same Processing Requirements on Each Machine***by*Michael Pinedo**847-851 An Algorithm for a Class of Nonconvex Programming Problems with Nonlinear Fractional Objectives***by*R. Jagannathan**852-869 Focused Scheduling in Proportionate Flowshops***by*Peng Si Ow**870-887 On Approximate Queueing Models of Dynamic Job Shops***by*J. A. Buzacott & J. G. Shanthikumar**888-899 Analysis of Names and Relationships Among Data Elements***by*C. S. Sankar**900-916 Rationality in the Analysis of Behavioral Simulation Models***by*John D. W. Morecroft**917-918 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 6

**647-656 Note---A Preference Ranking Organisation Method***by*J. P. Brans & Ph. Vincke**657-663 Sequential Hedging***by*William S. Krasker**664-679 A Forward Simplex Method for Staircase Linear Programs***by*Jay E. Aronson & Thomas E. Morton & Gerald L. Thompson**680-702 Cognitive Heuristics and Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Environment***by*Don N. Kleinmuntz**703-718 Job Completion Based Inventory Systems: Optimal Policies for Repair Kits and Spare Machines***by*John W. Mamer & Stephen A. Smith**719-728 (S - 1, S) Policies for Perishable Inventory***by*Charles P. Schmidt & Steven Nahmias**729-737 Approximations for a Lost-Sales Production/Inventory Control Model with Service Level Constraints***by*A. G. de Kok**738-751 The Effects of Problem Representation on the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles***by*L. Robin Keller**752-763 Multi-Agent Customer Allocation in a Stochastic Service System***by*Hau Leung Lee & Morris A. Cohen**764-772 Locating a Mobile Server Queueing Facility on a Tree Network***by*Samuel S. Chiu & Oded Berman & Richard C. Larson**773-781 The Art and Science of Planning at the Business Unit Level***by*Paul Miesing & Joseph Wolfe**782-784 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 5

**515-526 Kidney Transplantation: A Simulation Model for Examining Demand and Supply***by*R. Jean Ruth & Leon Wyszewianski & Gary Herline**527-535 Should Scoring Rules be "Effective"?***by*Robert F. Nau**536-547 Strategic Implications of Market Share Attraction Models***by*Aneel Karnani**548-563 General Economic Equilibrium as a Unifying Concept in Energy-Economic Modeling***by*John P. Weyant**564-578 The Tolerance Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming***by*Richard E. Wendell**579-593 Estimating Network Characteristics in Stochastic Activity Networks***by*George S. Fishman**594-598 Scheduling the General Job-Shop***by*Jeffrey R. Barker & Graham B. McMahon**599-607 Work Force Size and Single Shift Schedules with Variable Demands***by*R. N. Burns & M. W. Carter**608-621 Budgeting Costs of Nursing in a Hospital***by*Edward P. C. Kao & Maurice Queyranne**622-633 An Analysis of Optimal Advertising Under Uncertainty***by*Dung Nguyen**634-640 Note---Performance Bounds for Lot Sizing Heuristics***by*Sven Axsäter**640-643 Note---A Note on the Optimality of the Modified Generalized Goal Decomposition Model***by*Wayne J. Davis & David T. Whitford**644-644 Errata to "On Competition to Join a Simple Queueing System Before the Facility Opens***by*anonymous**645-646 About Authors***by*anonymous

### 1985, Volume 31, Issue 4

**381-394 Transactions Costs, Extent of Inefficiencies, Entries and Multiple Wagers in a Racetrack Betting Model***by*Donald B. Hausch & William T. Ziemba**395-414 Effort and Accuracy in Choice***by*Eric J. Johnson & John W. Payne**415-421 Beta Instability and Stochastic Market Weights***by*David H. Goldenberg**422-434 A Linear Dynamic Programming Approach to Irrigation System Management with Depleting Groundwater***by*A. L. Stoecker & A. Seidmann & G. S. Lloyd**435-460 Implicit Understandings in Channels of Distribution***by*Steven M. Shugan