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Estimating Structural Models of Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchy Thinking in the Field: The Case of Withheld Movie Critic Reviews

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander L. Brown

    (Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843)

  • Colin F. Camerer

    (Division for the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

  • Dan Lovallo

    (The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia)

Abstract

Film studios occasionally withhold movies from critics before their release. Because the unreviewed movies tend to be below average in quality, this practice provides a useful setting in which to test models of limited strategic thinking: Do moviegoers seem to realize that no review is a sign of low quality? A companion paper showed that in a set of all widely released movies in 2000-2009, cold opening produces a significant 20%-30% increase in domestic box office revenue, which is consistent with moviegoers overestimating quality of unreviewed movies (perhaps due to limited strategic thinking). This paper reviews those findings and provides two models to analyze this data: an equilibrium model and a behavioral cognitive hierarchy model that allows for differing levels of strategic thinking between moviegoers and movie studios. The behavioral model fits the data better, because moviegoer parameters are relatively close to those observed in experimental subjects. These results suggests that limited strategic thinking rather than equilibrium reasoning may be a better explanation for naïve moviegoer behavior. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, behavioral economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander L. Brown & Colin F. Camerer & Dan Lovallo, 2013. "Estimating Structural Models of Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchy Thinking in the Field: The Case of Withheld Movie Critic Reviews," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 733-747, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:3:p:733-747
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2021. "Identification of firms’ beliefs in structural models of market competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 5-33, February.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lane, Tom & Zhou, Minghai, 2025. "Voluntary quality disclosure in the Labour market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Alexander Cuntz & Alessio Muscarnera & Prince C. Oguguo & Matthias Sahli, 2023. "IP assets and film finance - a primer on standard practices in the U.S," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 74, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    6. Aguirregabiria Victor & Xie Erhao, 2021. "Identification of Non-Equilibrium Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, January.
    7. George Ball & Enno Siemsen & Rachna Shah, 2017. "Do Plant Inspections Predict Future Quality? The Role of Investigator Experience," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 534-550, October.
    8. Brown, Alexander L. & Meer, Jonathan & Williams, J. Forrest, 2017. "Social distance and quality ratings in charity choice," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-15.
    9. Tony Haitao Cui & Yinghao Zhang, 2018. "Cognitive Hierarchy in Capacity Allocation Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1250-1270, March.
    10. Jordi McKenzie, 2023. "The economics of movies (revisited): A survey of recent literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 480-525, April.
    11. Deversi, Marvin & Ispano, Alessandro & Schwardmann, Peter, 2021. "Spin doctors: An experiment on vague disclosure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Tom Lane & Minghai Zhou, 2022. "Failure of unravelling theory? A natural field experiment on voluntary quality disclosure," Discussion Papers 2022-17, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    13. Dhar, Tirtha & Weinberg, Charles B., 2016. "Measurement of interactions in non-linear marketing models: The effect of critics' ratings and consumer sentiment on movie demand," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 392-408.
    14. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Minyu Shen & Feng Xiao & Weihua Gu & Hongbo Ye, 2025. "Cognitive Hierarchy in Day-to-Day Network Flow Dynamics," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 951-971, September.
    16. Alessandro Ispano & Peter Schwardmann, 2023. "Cursed Consumers and the Effectiveness of Consumer Protection Policies," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 407-440, June.
    17. Conlin, Michael & Dickert-Conlin, Stacy, 2017. "Inference by college admission departments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 14-28.
    18. Tanjim Hossain & John Morgan, 2013. "When Do Markets Tip? A Cognitive Hierarchy Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 431-453, May.
    19. Vikander Nick, 2019. "Sellouts, Beliefs, and Bandwagon Behavior," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.

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