IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/wly/amposc/v54y2010i1p190-208.html

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Jeitschko, Thomas D. & Linz, Susan J. & Noguera, Jose & Semykina, Anastasia, 2014. "Economic security and democratic capital: Why do some democracies survive and others fail?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-28.
  2. Boese Vanessa A., 2015. "Viva la Revolución, or: Do Revolutions Lead to More Democracy?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 541-551, December.
  3. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 5555, IZA Network @ LISER.
  4. Shaheer, Noman & Tang, Ryan W. & Yang, Jing Yu, 2025. "The culprit behind bootleg music: The diverging roles of formal and informal institutions," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3).
  5. De Grauwe, Paul & Saka, Orkun & Ji, Yuemei, 2020. "Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interest," CEPR Discussion Papers 15413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Simplice A. Asongu & Thales P. Yapatake Kossele & Joseph Nnanna, 2021. "Not all that glitters is gold: political stability and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/005, Research Africa Network (RAN).
  7. repec:fsu:wpaper:wp2013_12_01 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Mueller, Hannes & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 358-375, May.
  9. Giovanni Carnazza & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2024. "Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach," Discussion Papers 2024/319, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  10. Jack A. Goldstone & Monty G. Marshall & Hilton Root, 2014. "Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks1," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 120-133, June.
  11. Brast, Benjamin, 2017. "Liberal Statebuilding Interventions and the Monopoly on Violence," SocArXiv yqk9v, Center for Open Science.
  12. repec:osf:socarx:yqk9v_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Dmitry Ryvkin & Anastasia Semykina, 2017. "An experimental study of democracy breakdown, income and inequality," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 420-447, June.
  14. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
  15. Beger, Andreas & Dorff, Cassy L. & Ward, Michael D., 2016. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-111.
  16. Huda Mohamed Mukhtar Ahmed, 2014. "The Socio-Economic and Political Impacts of Youth Bulge: The Case of Sudan," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 224-235, July.
  17. Hartley, Tilman, 2022. "State Crisis Theory: A systematization of institutional, socio-ecological, demographic-structural, world-systems, and revolutions research," SocArXiv e7zsd_v1, Center for Open Science.
  18. Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, 2022. "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2440-2467.
  19. Ryan G Baird, 2020. "Introduction to special issue on forecasting in the social sciences for national security," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 231-233, July.
  20. Hatton, Timothy J., 2012. "Refugee and Asylum Migration to the OECD: A Short Overview," IZA Discussion Papers 7004, IZA Network @ LISER.
  21. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
  22. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
  23. Govinda Clayton & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2014. "Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 265-284, July.
  24. Patrick M. Regan, 2014. "Bringing peace back in: Presidential address to the Peace Science Society, 2013," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 345-356, September.
  25. Vilde Lunnan Djuve & Carl Henrik Knutsen, 2024. "Economic crisis and regime transitions from within," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(3), pages 446-461, May.
  26. Gerald Schneider & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Sabine Carey, 2011. "Forecasting in International Relations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 5-14, February.
  27. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  28. Samuel Bazzi, Christopher Blattman, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Price- Working Paper 274," Working Papers 274, Center for Global Development.
  29. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
  30. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2015. "Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 32-44.
  31. Dmitry Ryvkin & Anastasia Semykina, 2015. "The chicken or the egg: An experimental study of democracy survival, income, and inequality," Working Papers wp2015_11_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
  32. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera‐Crichton & Brittany Tarufelli, 2022. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and political transitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 465-493, July.
  33. Ms. Anna Kochanova & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "Country Stress Events: Does Governance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/116, International Monetary Fund.
  34. repec:osf:socarx:tvshu_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Knight, John, 2013. "The economic causes and consequences of social instability in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-26.
  36. repec:rnp:ppaper:mn45 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Ra�l S�nchez de la Sierra, 2015. "On the Origins of States: Stationary Bandits and Taxation in Eastern Congo," HiCN Working Papers 194, Households in Conflict Network.
  38. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohammad Ali Kadivar, 2023. "The effect of Islamic revolution and war on income inequality in Iran," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1007-1026, August.
  39. Jacqueline M Sievert, 2018. "The case for courts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(6), pages 774-786, November.
  40. Sherzod Abdukadirov, 2010. "The problem of political calculation in autocracies," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 360-373, December.
  41. repec:bcp:journl:v:5:y:2021:i:09:p:301-306 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Aidan Hehir, 2015. "The Viability of the “Responsibility to Prevent”," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(3), pages 85-97.
  43. Vanessa A Boese, 2019. "How (not) to measure democracy," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 95-127, June.
  44. Koen Zwet & Ana I. Barros & Tom M. Engers & Peter M. A. Sloot, 2022. "Emergence of protests during the COVID-19 pandemic: quantitative models to explore the contributions of societal conditions," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
  45. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
  46. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
  47. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2022. "Commodity price volatility, inflation uncertainty and political stability," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(3), pages 351-381, September.
  48. Trace Lasley & Clayton Thyne, 2015. "Secession, legitimacy and the use of child soldiers," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 289-308, July.
  49. Barry G. Silverman & Daniel M. Silverman & Gnana Bharathy & Nathan Weyer & William R. Tam, 2021. "StateSim: lessons learned from 20 years of a country modeling and simulation toolset," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 231-263, September.
  50. Ore Koren, 2017. "Means to an end: Pro-government militias as a predictive indicator of strategic mass killing1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(5), pages 461-484, September.
  51. Montgomery, Jacob M. & Hollenbach, Florian M. & Ward, Michael D., 2015. "Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 930-942.
  52. Çiflikli, Gökhan & Metternich, Nils W, 2019. "We predict conflict better than we thought! Taking time seriously when evaluating predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data," SocArXiv tvshu, Center for Open Science.
  53. Al-Jabri, Nasser & Campbell, Neil & Saha, Shrabani & Khan, Safdar, 2022. "The role of youth bulge on political instability: Cross-country evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1053-1074.
  54. Henrikas BartuseviÄ ius & Svend-Erik Skaaning, 2018. "Revisiting democratic civil peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 625-640, September.
  55. Lance Kent & Toan Phan, 2013. "Business Cycles with Revolutions," Working Papers 145, Economics Department, William & Mary.
  56. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Indra de Soysa, 2019. "Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013," Working Papers 201908 Key words: Oil wea, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  57. Lin, Chu & Sun, Wei & Wang, Chengli, 2026. "Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
  58. repec:gig:afjour:v:44:y:2009:i:3:p:2-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2024. "The geopolitical strategy of refugee camps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
  60. Green, Alan, 2013. "Estimating the effects of democratization in African countries: A simultaneous equations approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 555-571.
  61. Andrew P. Owsiak, 2015. "Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 50-75, February.
  62. Roberto Bruni & Annarita Colamatteo & Evgenia Nekhoda, 2021. "Governing Territories in Turbulence with Advanced Marketing Frameworks," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-79, August.
  63. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul W. & Davidson, Brittany I. & Zhu, Xiao Xiang & Kauermann, Göran, 2024. "Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 373-391.
  64. Lukoianove, Tatiana & Mihalache-Okeef, Andreea & Demirkan, Irem & Jiang, Crystal & Chintakananda, Asda & White, George O., 2025. "Emerging methodologies in socio-political risk research: An introduction," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(5).
  65. Karen E. Smith, 2015. "Mass Atrocity Prevention: Forever Elusive or Potentially Achievable?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(3), pages 1-4.
  66. Martin C. Steinwand, 2015. "Foreign aid and political stability," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 395-424, September.
  67. Imam, Patrick A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2024. "Political institutions and output collapses," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  68. Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.
  69. Saka, Orkun & Ji, Yuemei & De Grauwe, Paul, 2021. "Financial policymaking after crises : Public vs. private interests," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  70. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  71. Hou, Xin & Gao, Jianbo, 2025. "Toward Common Prosperity: Measuring decrease in inequality in China prefecture-level cities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 29-46.
  72. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2022. "Repatriation during conflict: A signaling analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  73. Jack A. Goldstone, 2011. "Representational Models and Democratic Transitions in Fragile and Post-Conflict States," World Bank Publications - Reports 9190, The World Bank Group.
  74. Andrey Korotayev & Ilya Vaskin & Stanislav Bilyuga & Alina Khokhlova & Anastasia Baltach & Eugeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina, 2017. "Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: A Re-Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  75. Cassy Dorff & Grace Adcox & Amanda Konet, 2023. "Data innovations on protests in the United States," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 172-189, January.
  76. Nicholas J Shallcross & Darryl K Ahner, 2020. "Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 243-267, July.
  77. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  78. Brandon Parsons & Joseph St. Marie & Robert Pauly, 2025. "Quantile via Moments Panel Data Analysis: Dissecting Political Regimes and the Spectrum of Internal Conflicts," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 268-307, April.
  79. Alfred Krzywicki & David Muchlinski & Benjamin E. Goldsmith & Arcot Sowmya, 2022. "From academia to policy makers: a methodology for real-time forecasting of infrequent events," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1489-1510, November.
  80. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
  81. Gilian van den Hengel & Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-25, August.
  82. Justin George, 2018. "State Failure and Transnational Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(3), pages 471-495, March.
  83. Gazi Mainul Hassan & Joao Ricardo Faria, 2013. "Are Remittances Conflict-Abating in Recipient Countries?," Working Papers in Economics 13/11, University of Waikato.
  84. Ahlidin Malikov & Behzod Alimov, 2026. "Income Inequality, Civic Participation, and Political Instability," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 1-32, January.
  85. Aidan Hehir, 2015. "The Viability of the “Responsibility to Prevent”," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(3), pages 85-97.
  86. Augustin Tapsoba & Hannes Mueller, 2016. "Access to Power, Political Institutions and Ethnic Favoritism," Working Papers 901, Barcelona School of Economics.
  87. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
  88. Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Halvard Buhaug & Ã…shild Falch & Scott Gates, 2011. "All Conflict is Local," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 15-40, February.
  89. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Aid and institutions in transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 55-70.
  90. Luke J Matthews & Sam Passmore & Paul M Richard & Russell D Gray & Quentin D Atkinson, 2016. "Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
  91. Grechyna, Daryna, 2017. "Political Instability: The Neighbor vs. the Partner Effect," MPRA Paper 79952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  92. Marie K. Schellens & Salim Belyazid, 2020. "Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-29, August.
  93. Babak Rezaeedaryakenari & Steven T. Landis & Cameron G. Thies, 2020. "Food price volatilities and civilian victimization in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 193-214, March.
  94. Karim Khan & Sadia Sherbaz, 2020. "Entertaining Douglass North: Political Violence and Social Order," PIDE-Working Papers 2020:174, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  95. Mary Luz Mouronte-López & Juana Savall Ceres, 2024. "Exploring socioeconomic similarity-inequality: a regional perspective," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
  96. Holger Albrecht & Kevin Koehler, 2020. "Revolutionary mass uprisings in authoritarian regimes," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 135-159, June.
  97. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, 2022. "Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
  98. Ulrich Pilster & Tobias Böhmelt, 2011. "Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(4), pages 331-350, September.
  99. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  100. Beall, Jo & Fox, Sean, 2011. "PD4: mitigating conflict and violence in Africa’s rapidly growing cities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 41855, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  101. Felix Ettensperger, 2020. "Comparing supervised learning algorithms and artificial neural networks for conflict prediction: performance and applicability of deep learning in the field," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 567-601, April.
  102. Karen E. Smith, 2015. "Mass Atrocity Prevention: Forever Elusive or Potentially Achievable?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(3), pages 1-4.
  103. Gries Thomas & Palnau Irene, 2015. "Sustaining Civil Peace: A Configurational Comparative Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 467-478, December.
  104. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
  105. Andrea L. Everett, 2016. "Post-Cold War complex humanitarian emergencies: Introducing a new dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 311-339, July.
  106. Anke Hoeffler, 2014. "Can international interventions secure the peace?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 75-94, March.
  107. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya & de Soysa, Indra, 2020. "Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  108. Mustafa Batuhan TUFANER & İlyas SÖZEN, 2019. "Macroeconomic impacts of refugee inflows in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," Journal of Economics Library, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 186-200, September.
  109. Guicang Peng & Knut Erik Bang & Tore Markeset, 2025. "Country risk mapping in a changing world—comparative survey on academic research and industrial practices," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 16(2), pages 561-580, February.
  110. Dirks, Maximilian W. & Schmidt, Torsten, 2024. "Political instability and economic growth: Causation and transmission," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.