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Means to an end: Pro-government militias as a predictive indicator of strategic mass killing1

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  • Ore Koren

Abstract

Forecasting models of state-led mass killing are limited in their use of structural indicators, despite a large body of research that emphasizes the importance of agency and security repertoires in conditioning political violence. I seek to overcome these limitations by developing a theoretical and statistical framework that highlights the advantages of using pro-government militias (PGMs) as a predictive indicator in forecasting models of state-led mass killing. I argue that PGMs can lower the potential costs associated with mass killing for a regime faced with an internal threat, and might hence “tip the balance†in its favor. In estimating a series of statistical models and their receiver–operator characteristic curves to evaluate this hypothesis globally for the years 1981–2007, focusing on 270 internal threat episodes, I find robust support for my expectations: including PGM indicators in state-led mass killing models significantly improves their predictive strength. Moreover, these results hold even when coefficient estimates produced by in-sample data are used to predict state-led mass killing in cross-validation and out-of-sample data for the years 2008–2013. This study hence provides an introductory demonstration of the potential advantages of including security repertoires, in addition to structural factors, in forecasting models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ore Koren, 2017. "Means to an end: Pro-government militias as a predictive indicator of strategic mass killing1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(5), pages 461-484, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:34:y:2017:i:5:p:461-484
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894215600385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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