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The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Testing for Unit Roots and the Impact of Quadratic Trends, with an Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 514-547, October.
  2. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
  3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2017. "Robust cointegration testing in the presence of weak trends, with an application to the human origin of global warming," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 514-545, May.
  4. Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2017. "The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 510-514, May.
  5. David O. Cushman, 2012. "Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA's Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 309-349, September.
  6. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071.
  7. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.
  8. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
  9. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," Working Papers hal-04138871, HAL.
  10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2011. "Energy consumption at business cycle horizons: The case of the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 161-167, March.
  11. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Interpolation and shock persistence of prewar U.S. macroeconomic time series: A reconsideration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 213.
  12. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
  13. Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
  14. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
  15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
  16. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
  17. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "Random walk and breaking trend in financial series: An econometric critique of unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 204-212, August.
  18. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Sequential monitoring for changes from stationarity to mild non-stationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 209-238.
  19. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "Is the trend in post-WW II US real GDP uncertain or non-linear?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 348-355, March.
  20. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  21. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
  22. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
  23. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Aviral Tiwari & Amrit Chaudhari & K. Suresh, 2012. "Are Asian Per Capita GDP Stationary? Evidence from First and Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 3-11, September.
  25. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
  26. repec:hal:journl:hal-00914830 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Amit Sen, 2004. "Are US macroeconomic series difference stationary or trend-break stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2025-2029.
  28. Hanck, C.H., 2009. "Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation," Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  29. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
  30. H. Naci Mocan & Hope Corman, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June.
  31. K. Patterson & Saeed Heravi, 2003. "Weighted symmetric tests for a unit root: response functions, power, test dependence and test conflict," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 779-790.
  32. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
  33. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
  34. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
  35. Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 516-519.
  36. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.
  37. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  38. John Dawson & John Seater, 2013. "Federal regulation and aggregate economic growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 137-177, June.
  39. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Fabien Candau & Michaël Goujon & Jean-François Hoarau & Serge Rey, 2014. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU's ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 1-21.
  41. John W. Dawson & John J. Seater, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Regulation," Working Papers 05-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  42. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
  43. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Robust analysis of convergence in per capita GDP in BRICS economies," MPRA Paper 86936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
  45. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 161-187, April.
  46. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2007. "Inference in the Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07021, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  47. Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March.
  48. K. Suresh & Aviral Tiwari, 2013. "Are Shocks to Real Output Permanent or Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of “Asean” Per Capita GDP Data," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 149-157, October.
  49. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
  50. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
  51. Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 12-27.
  52. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2019. "Does U.K.’s Real GDP have a Unit Root? Evidence from a Multi-Century Perspective," Working Papers 201926, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  53. Romulo Chumacero, 2001. "Testing For Unit Roots Using Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 2, Society for Computational Economics.
  54. Matheron, Julien, 2003. "Is growth useful in RBC models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-622, May.
  55. David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.
  56. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9848 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Burridge, P. & Gjorstrup, F. & Robert Taylor, A. M., 2004. "Robust Inference on Seasonal Unit Roots via a Bootstrap Applied to OECD Macroeconomic Series," Working Papers 04/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
  58. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9848 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shahbaz Shabbir , Muhammad, 2012. "Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary in SAARC Countries?," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 1(1), pages 1-5.
  60. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Testing for Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0402003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9848 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
  63. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
  64. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
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