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The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns

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  1. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha & Dowling, Michael, 2020. "Effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on the interdependence between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 150-155.
  2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios & Stengos, Thanasis, 2022. "On the volatility of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  3. Ghabri, Yosra & Ben Rhouma, Oussama & Gana, Marjène & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Information transmission among energy markets, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins under pandemic conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  4. Kingstone Nyakurukwa & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2023. "Higher moment connectedness of cryptocurrencies: a time-frequency approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 793-814, September.
  5. Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Rachel J. Nam & Ye Yuan, 2023. "Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10598, CESifo.
  6. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  7. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Ababio, Kofi Agyarko & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2019. "Time-frequency analysis of behaviourally classified financial asset markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 54-69.
  8. Akyildirim, Erdinç & Corbet, Shaen & Cumming, Douglas & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Riding the Wave of Crypto-Exuberance: The Potential Misusage of Corporate Blockchain Announcements," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  9. Kreuzer, Christian & Laschinger, Ralf & Priberny, Christopher & Benninghoff, Sven, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies as a vehicle for capital exodus: Evidence from the Russian–Ukrainian crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
  10. Benjamin Walwai Miba’am & Hasan Güngör, 2025. "Do Uncertainties in US Affect Bitcoin Returns? Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(5), pages 4303-4327, November.
  11. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
  12. Viviane Senna & Adriano Mendonça Souza, 2023. "Impacts of short and long-term between cryptocurrencies and stock exchange indexes," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 97-119, February.
  13. Theodore Panagiotidis & Thanasis Stengos & Orestis Vravosinos, 2020. "A Principal Component-Guided Sparse Regression Approach for the Determination of Bitcoin Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, February.
  14. Desagre, Christophe & D’Hondt, Catherine, 2021. "Googlization and retail trading activity," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  15. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Tural Abdulhasanov, 2023. "Analyzing the Connection between Energy Prices and Cryptocurrency throughout the Pandemic Period," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 227-234, January.
  16. Hui Xiao & Yiguo Sun, 2020. "Forecasting the Returns of Cryptocurrency: A Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
  17. Kristjanpoller, Werner & Bouri, Elie & Takaishi, Tetsuya, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and equity funds: Evidence from an asymmetric multifractal analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
  18. Cole, Benjamin M. & Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "Can Bitcoin be Trusted? Quantifying the economic value of blockchain transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  19. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios & Stengos, Thanasis, 2024. "A Bayesian approach for the determinants of bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  20. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2024. "How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
  21. Panpan Zhu & Xing Zhang & You Wu & Hao Zheng & Yinpeng Zhang, 2021. "Investor attention and cryptocurrency: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, February.
  22. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2026. "Does mining activity drive crash risks in bitcoin?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  23. Al Guindy, Mohamed, 2021. "Cryptocurrency price volatility and investor attention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 556-570.
  24. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
  25. Hoang, Lai T. & Baur, Dirk G., 2022. "Loaded for bear: Bitcoin private wallets, exchange reserves and prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  26. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  27. Christophe Desagre & Catherine D'Hondt, 2020. "Googlization and retail investors' trading activity," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2020004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  28. Omid Zamani & Thomas Bittmann & Jens‐Peter Loy, 2024. "Does the internet bring food prices closer together? Exploring search engine query data in Iran," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 688-715, June.
  29. Tchai Tavor, 2026. "Bitcoin’s sensitivity to external narratives: a study of abnormal returns in a transformative era," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 1-15, June.
  30. Ouandlous, Arav & Barkoulas, John T. & Pantos, Themis D., 2022. "Extremity in bitcoin market activity," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  31. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
  32. Yuzhi Cai & Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Danilo V. Mascia, 2021. "How is price explosivity triggered in the cryptocurrency markets?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 307(1), pages 37-51, December.
  33. Anoop S. Kumar & Balaga Mohana Rao, 2023. "Are non‐fungible token coins a good hedge against the stock market volatility?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 764-772, December.
  34. Yang, Boyu & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A novel two-stage approach for cryptocurrency analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  35. Xiaochun Guo, 2024. "Exploring Bitcoin dynamics against the backdrop of COVID-19: an investigation of major global events," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
  36. Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Abeeb Olaniran, 2025. "Does Mining Activity Drive Crash Risks in Cryptocurrency Markets? An Application to Bitcoin," Working Papers 202530, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  37. Agnese, Pablo & Thoss, Jonathan, 2021. "New Moneys under the New Normal? Bitcoin and Gold Interdependence during COVID Times," IZA Discussion Papers 14323, IZA Network @ LISER.
  38. Hoang, Lai & Vo, Duc Hong, 2024. "Google search and cross-section of cryptocurrency returns and trading activities," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  39. Yousaf, Imran & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Yousaf, Umair Bin & Serret, Vanessa, 2025. "The effect of crypto price fluctuations on crypto mining, and CO2 emissions amid geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  40. Alexander Brauneis & Mehmet Sahiner, 2026. "Crypto Volatility Forecasting: Mounting a HAR, Sentiment, and Machine Learning Horserace," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 33(1), pages 379-411, March.
  41. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  42. Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
  43. Dag, Ali & Dag, Asli Z. & Asilkalkan, Abdullah & Simsek, Serhat & Delen, Dursun, 2023. "A Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes-based methodology for classifying cryptocurrency trends," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  44. Gill-de-Albornoz, Belén & Lafuente, Juan A. & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordoñez, Javier, 2024. "Bitcoin attention and economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  45. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Bariviera, Aurelio & Kapetanios, George & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2025. "Heterogeneous Exposures to Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk across Crypto Assets: A Divide-and-Conquer Approach," MPRA Paper 125124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Bosede Olatomi Ige & Stanley Chibuzor Onwubu, 2025. "Understanding the influence of investors' risk perception on investment decision-making in South Africa’s financial markets," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 14(6), pages 108-120, August.
  47. Wu, Chang-Che & Ho, Shu-Ling & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2022. "The determinants of Bitcoin returns and volatility: Perspectives on global and national economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  48. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  49. Wüstenfeld, Jan & Geldner, Teo, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and national bitcoin trading activity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  50. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Similar to Gold? An Integrated Overview of Empirical Findings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, May.
  51. Mateusz Skwarek, 2025. "Why Do Investors Behave Irrationally in the Cryptocurrency and Emerging Stock Markets?," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(3), pages 21582440251, July.
  52. Ishtiaq Ahmad Bajwa & Shafiq Ur Rehman & Abid Iqbal & Zaheer Anwer & Murtaza Ashiq & Muhammad Ajmal Khan, 2022. "Past, Present and Future of FinTech Research: A Bibliometric Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.
  53. Jinghua Wang & Geoffrey M. Ngene & Yan Shi & Ann Nduati Mungai, 2023. "An Investigation of the Predictability of Uncertainty Indices on Bitcoin Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-12, October.
  54. Peciulis Tomas & Vasiliauskaite Asta, 2024. "Effect of Monetary Policy Decisions and Announcements on the Price of Cryptocurrencies: An Elastic-Net With Arima Residuals Approach," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 21(1), pages 77-92.
  55. Ben Nouir, Jihed & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  56. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2022. "Asymmetric, time and frequency-based spillover transmission in financial and commodity markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
  57. Bhuvaneskumar Annamalaisamy & Sivakumar Vepur Jayaraman, 2024. "Do cryptocurrencies integrate with the indices of equity, sustainability, clean energy, and crude oil? A wavelet coherency approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3372-3392, July.
  58. Adel Benhamed & Ahlem Selma Messai & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "On the Determinants of Bitcoin Returns and Volatility: What We Get from Gets?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
  59. Joubert, Thomas H.A., 2024. "Unraveling Bitcoin price unpredictability: The role of hard forks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
  60. Li, Mingnan & Manahov, Viktor & Ashton, John, 2025. "A note on the relationship between Bitcoin price and sentiment: New evidence obtained from a cryptocurrency heist," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  61. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Schweizer, Denis, 2023. "Interactions between investors’ fear and greed sentiment and Bitcoin prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  62. Guo, Xiaochun & Lu, Fengbin & Wei, Yunjie, 2021. "Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  63. Majid Mirzaee Ghazani & Ali Akbar Momeni Malekshah & Reza Khosravi, 2024. "Analyzing time–frequency connectedness between cryptocurrencies, stock indices, and benchmark crude oils during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
  64. Ji Ho Kwon, 2021. "On the factors of Bitcoin’s value at risk," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
  65. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Bitcoin: The Role of the Trade War," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 29-53, January.
  66. Chikashi Tsuji, 2025. "The risk–return trade-off of Bitcoin: Evidence from regime-switching analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
  67. Derick Quintino & Jessica Campoli & Heloisa Burnquist & Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Efficiency of the Brazilian Bitcoin: A DFA Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, April.
  68. Tayyaba Ahsan & Krystian Zawadzki & Mubashir Khan, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies as a Speculative Asset: How Much Uncertainty is Included in Cryptocurrency Price?," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, June.
  69. Taha Zaghdoudi & Kais Tissaoui & Mohamed Hédi Maâloul & Younès Bahou & Niazi Kammoun, 2024. "Can Economic, Geopolitical and Energy Uncertainty Indices Predict Bitcoin Energy Consumption? New Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-15, July.
  70. Sofiane Aboura, 2022. "A note on the Bitcoin and Fed Funds rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2577-2603, November.
  71. Thai Hong Le & Duc Anh Nguyen & Tu Thanh Vu, 2025. "Examining the co-movement between cryptocurrency uncertainty and central bank digital currency uncertainty," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 15(5), pages 69-84.
  72. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
  73. Dooyeon Cho & Kyung‐woo Lee, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Kimchi premium in the cryptocurrency market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 92(2), pages 359-381, October.
  74. José Almeida & Tiago Cruz Gonçalves, 2024. "Cryptocurrency market microstructure: a systematic literature review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 332(1), pages 1035-1068, January.
  75. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency market: Evidence from NARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  76. Berna Aydoğan & Omer Cayirli & Gülin Vardar, 2025. "Impact of Macroeconomics Factors on Cryptocurrency Pricing: Evidence from Bitcoin and Ethereum Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(4), pages 3131-3166, October.
  77. Bleher, Johannes & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2019. "Today I got a million, tomorrow, I don't know: On the predictability of cryptocurrencies by means of Google search volume," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 147-159.
  78. Khaled Mokni & Elie Bouri & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Does Bitcoin Hedge Categorical Economic Uncertainty? A Quantile Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
  79. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2020. "Tail behavior of Bitcoin, the dollar, gold and the stock market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  80. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  81. Wen, Fenghua & Tong, Xi & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Gold or Bitcoin, which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  82. Tan, Chia-Yen & Koh, You-Beng & Ng, Kok-Haur & Ng, Kooi-Huat, 2021. "Dynamic volatility modelling of Bitcoin using time-varying transition probability Markov-switching GARCH model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  83. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Returns before and after the Introduction of Bitcoin Futures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, June.
  84. Fang Wang & Adriana F. Gabor & Marko Gacesa & Ernesto Damiani, 2026. "Smiles or tears? How emojis power a semistrong efficient market of bitcoin: A comprehensive analysis of decision tree models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, December.
  85. Ngo Thai Hung & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies in an uncertain world: Comprehensive insights from a wide range of uncertainty indices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3811-3825, July.
  86. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Lang, Kun, 2021. "Can both Bitcoin and gold serve as safe-haven assets? — A comparative analysis based on the NARDL model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  87. Akwasi Adom-Dankwa & Francis Atsu & Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi & Godfred Amewu & Kenneth Ofori-Boateng, 2025. "Sovereign bond yield and cryptocurrency returns within the frontier West African monetary zone: a dynamic contagion analysis," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
  88. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  89. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
  90. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
  91. Aras, Serkan & Özdemir, Mehmet Ozan & Çılgın, Cihan, 2025. "Uncertainty or investor attention: Which has more impact on Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
  92. Serda Selin Ozturk, 2020. "Dynamic Connectedness between Bitcoin, Gold, and Crude Oil Volatilities and Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
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