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A Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes-based methodology for classifying cryptocurrency trends

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  • Dag, Ali
  • Dag, Asli Z.
  • Asilkalkan, Abdullah
  • Simsek, Serhat
  • Delen, Dursun

Abstract

As the popularity of blockchain technology and investor confidence in Bitcoin (BTC) increased in recent years, many individuals started making BTC and other cryptocurrency investments, in expectation of high returns. However, as recent market movements have shown, the lack of regulation and oversight makes it difficult to guard against high volatility and potentially significant losses in this sector. In this study, we propose a data-driven Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes methodology that can be used for identifying the most important factors (as well as their conditional, interdependent relationships) influencing BTC price movements. As the model is parsimonious without sacrificing accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity—as evident from the average accuracy value—the proposed methodology can be used in practice for making short-term investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dag, Ali & Dag, Asli Z. & Asilkalkan, Abdullah & Simsek, Serhat & Delen, Dursun, 2023. "A Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes-based methodology for classifying cryptocurrency trends," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:156:y:2023:i:c:s0148296322009870
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loh, Xiu-Ming & Lee, Voon-Hsien & Leong, Lai-Ying & Aw, Eugene Cheng-Xi & Cham, Tat-Huei & Tang, Yun-Chia & Hew, Jun-Jie, 2023. "Understanding consumers’ resistance to pay with cryptocurrency in the sharing economy: A hybrid SEM-fsQCA approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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