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Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility

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  1. Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "A Rough Examination of the value of gas storage," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 967, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
  3. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
  4. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
  5. Emmanuel Asane-Otoo & Bernhard C. Dannemann, 2022. "Rockets and Feathers Revisited: Asymmetric Retail Gasoline Pricing in the Era of Market Transparency," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(6), pages 103-122, November.
  6. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
  7. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
  8. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
  9. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The behaviour mechanism analysis of regional natural gas prices: A multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 266-277.
  10. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
  11. Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2020. "Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  12. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "What drives volatility in natural gas prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 731-742.
  13. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
  14. González, Aldo & Lagos, Vicente, 2021. "Do LPG prices react to the entry of natural gas? Implications for competition policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  15. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
  16. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  17. Kyle Olsen & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2015. "Price formulation and the law of one price in internationally linked markets: an examination of the natural gas markets in the USA and Canada," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 117-142, January.
  18. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Alexander Oskarovich Maslennikov & Stanislav Vyacheslavovich Zhukov, 2022. "Europe in World Natural Gas Market: International Transmission of European Price Shocks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 8-15, May.
  19. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  20. Luo, Keyu & Guo, Qiang & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Can the return connectedness indices from grey energy to natural gas help to forecast the natural gas returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  21. Yepes Rodri­guez, Ramón, 2008. "Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1909-1932, July.
  22. Jing Ao & Jihui Chen, 2020. "Price Volatility, the Maturity Effect, and Global Oil Prices: Evidence from Chinese Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 627-654, October.
  23. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of the gas supply using a data-driven model in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 704-714.
  24. Jean-Louis Bertrand & Xavier Brusset, 2018. "Managing the financial consequences of weather variability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 301-315, September.
  25. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
  26. Won, Seoung Joun & Wang, X. Henry & Warren, Henry E., 2016. "Climate normals and weather normalization for utility regulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 405-416.
  27. Baranes, Edmond & Mirabel, François & Poudou, Jean-Christophe, 2014. "Access to natural gas storage facilities: Strategic and regulation issues," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 19-32.
  28. Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
  29. Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube & Ariel Levy, 2019. "Recent movement of oil prices and future scenarios [Movimentos recentes dos preços do petróleo e os cenários futuros]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 29(1), pages 223-248, January-A.
  30. Chao Liang & Feng Ma & Lu Wang & Qing Zeng, 2021. "The information content of uncertainty indices for natural gas futures volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1310-1324, November.
  31. Mohamad, Azhar & Fromentin, Vincent, 2023. "Herd and causality dynamics between energy commodities and ethical investment: Evidence from the different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  32. Lin, Jianing & Bao, Minglei & Liang, Ziyang & Sang, Maosheng & Ding, Yi, 2022. "Spatio-temporal evaluation of electricity price risk considering multiple uncertainties under extreme cold weather," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
  33. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2023. "Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  34. Bertrand Tavin & Lorenz Schneider, 2018. "From the Samuelson volatility effect to a Samuelson correlation effect : An analysis of crude oil calendar spread options," Post-Print hal-02311970, HAL.
  35. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional modeling and forecasting of natural gas prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1065-1086, September.
  36. Beatriz Martínez & Hipòlit Torró, 2016. "Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures," Working Papers 2016.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  37. Schneider, Lorenz & Tavin, Bertrand, 2018. "From the Samuelson volatility effect to a Samuelson correlation effect: An analysis of crude oil calendar spread options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 185-202.
  38. Monica Giulietti, Luigi Grossi, and Michael Waterson, 2012. "A Rough Analysis: Valuing Gas Storage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
  39. Derek Bunn & Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoit Sevi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(2), pages 201-228, March.
  40. Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K., 2023. "Adjustable emissions caps and the price of pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  41. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
  42. Makkonen, Adam & Vallström, Daniel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia, 2021. "The effect of temperature anomaly and macroeconomic fundamentals on agricultural commodity futures returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  43. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Distributional Modeling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Prices," Papers 2010.06227, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
  44. Pan, Zhiyuan & Xiao, Dongli & Dong, Qingma & Liu, Li, 2022. "Structural breaks, macroeconomic fundamentals and cross hedge ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  45. Hong, Yanran & Yu, Jize & Su, Yuquan & Wang, Lu, 2023. "Southern oscillation: Great value of its trends for forecasting crude oil spot price volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 358-368.
  46. Ronn, Ehud I., 2022. "Commodity market indicators of a 2023 Texas winter freeze," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  47. Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
  48. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2024. "Do price caps assist monetary authorities to control inflation? Examining the impact of the natural gas price cap on TTF spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  49. Lilian de Menezes & Marianna Russo & Giovanni Urga, 2016. "Identifying Drivers of Liquidity in the NBP Month-ahead Market," EcoMod2016 9570, EcoMod.
  50. Xie, Gang & Jiang, Fuxin & Zhang, Chengyuan, 2023. "A secondary decomposition-ensemble methodology for forecasting natural gas prices using multisource data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  51. Derek Bunn, Julien Chevallier, Yannick Le Pen, and Benoit Sevi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  52. Chen, Yanhui & Zhou, Xiaoyu & Chen, Shun & Mi, Jackson Jinhong, 2024. "LNG freight rate and LNG price, carbon price, geopolitical risk: A dynamic connectedness analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
  53. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  54. Jang, Hyeonung & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2020. "Monetary policy rate expectation and energy prices during the FOMC announcement period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  55. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2021. "Testing directional predictability between energy prices: A quantile-based analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  56. Li, Jinchao & Wu, Qianqian & Tian, Yu & Fan, Liguo, 2021. "Monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot prices forecasting using variational mode decomposition and deep belief network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  57. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Dynamic frequency relationships and volatility spillovers in natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  58. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "US Natural Gas Price Determination: Fundamentals and the Development of Shale," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  59. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  60. Tao, Hu & Zhuang, Shan & Xue, Rui & Cao, Wei & Tian, Jinfang & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Environmental Finance: An Interdisciplinary Review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  61. Yanting Chen & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2023. "Temperature, storage, and natural gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 549-575, April.
  62. Louis H. Ederington, Fang Lin, Scott C. Linn, and Lisa (Zongfei) Yang, 2019. "EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  63. Huang, Kuan-Ming & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2021. "Do natural hazards in the Gulf Coast still matter for state-level natural gas prices in the US? Evidence after the shale gas boom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  64. Paolo Figini & Simona Cicognani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2023. "Booking in the Rain. Testing the Impact of Public Information on Prices," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 1329-1364, November.
  65. Lijuan Peng & Zhenglan Xia & Yisu Huang & Zhigang Pan, 2023. "Role of weather in the natural gas market: Insights from the STL‐GARCH‐W method," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 304-323, December.
  66. Wang, Jiqian & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Zhong, Juandan, 2022. "Volatility of clean energy and natural gas, uncertainty indices, and global economic conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  67. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2019. "Re-examining the movements of crude oil spot and futures prices over time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 224-236.
  68. Hitzemann, Steffen & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin, 2015. "Emission permits and the announcement of realized emissions: Price impact, trading volume, and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 560-569.
  69. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B. & Sheng, Ni & Wei, Xinyang, 2024. "Variance dynamics and term structure of the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  70. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.
  71. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Oglend, Atle, 2017. "Estimating the competitive storage model: A simulated likelihood approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 39-56.
  72. Ma, Yiqun, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers and dependencies between iron ore prices, industry bond yields, and steel prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  73. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
  74. Amina Baba & Sana Ben Kebaier & Anna Creti, 2024. "How efficient are natural gas markets in practice? A wavelet-based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 623-677, March.
  75. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  76. Chen Gu & Alexander Kurov, 2018. "What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1096, September.
  77. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
  78. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2017. "Turbulent times: Uncovering the origins of US natural gas price fluctuations since deregulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-205.
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  81. Koenig, P., 2012. "The effect of LNG on the rleationship between UK and Continental European natural gas markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1253, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  82. Francesco Angelini & Paolo Figini & Veronica Leoni, 2024. "High tide, low price? Flooding alerts and hotel prices in Venice," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 876-899, June.
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  86. Ohana, Steve, 2010. "Modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the US natural gas and heating oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 373-388, March.
  87. Fink, Jason D. & Fink, Kristin E. & Russell, Allison, 2010. "When and how do tropical storms affect markets? The case of refined petroleum," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1283-1290, November.
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  89. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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