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Unveiling the impact of geopolitical conflict on oil prices: A case study of the Russia-Ukraine War and its channels

Citations

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  1. Kočenda, Evžen & Albrecht, Peter & Pastorek, Daniel, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and extreme spillovers among oil-based energy commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  2. Zhang, Xiaokong & Chai, Jian & Tian, Lingyue & Pan, Yue & Wang, Jiaoyan, 2024. "What drives the high-risk spillover of benchmark oil prices into China's LNG market?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
  3. Li, Jinchao & Guo, Yuwei, 2025. "A hybrid model based on iTransformer for risk warning of crude oil price fluctuations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
  4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2024. "Is geopolitical oil price uncertainty forcing the world to use energy more efficiently? Evidence from advanced statistical methods," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 908-919.
  5. Ping Li & Peiyao Zhang & Yanhong Guo & Jiahong Li, 2024. "How has the relationship between major financial markets changed during the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
  6. Raghav Goyal & Edouard Mensah & Sandro Steinbach, 2024. "The interplay of geopolitics and agricultural commodity prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1533-1562, December.
  7. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and energy market tail risk forecasting: An explainable machine learning approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  8. António Miguel Martins, 2024. "Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 619-630, April.
  9. Valencia, Oscar & Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana & Sánchez, Gustavo, 2025. "Fiscal adjustments and the asymmetric effect of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  10. Chen, Diana & Yu, Xiaohong & Pardo-Piñashca, Eduardo, 2026. "Dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions on the EU-Russian energy market: Evidence on crude oil and natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  11. Ullah, Assad & Riaz, Adeel, 2025. "The impact of energy-related uncertainty on China’s overall and sectoral stock returns: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
  12. Li, Zhengzheng & Liu, Shenyu & Lobont, Oana-Ramona, 2026. "Oil price uncertainty and China's rare earth exports: Driver or constraint?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  13. Chen, Shi & Duan, Xiaoyu & Chiu, Shiu-Chieh & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2024. "Insurer hedging amidst the interplay of black and green swans toward SDGs 3 and 7," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  14. Stéphanie Bordel & Kévin Nadarajah & Sylvain Bouquet & Samuel Busson & Maud Rebibou & Alain Somat, 2025. "When Night Falls: An Exploratory Study of Residents’ Perceptions of Policy Measures Regarding Extinction of Public Lighting in the ‘Heart of the Night’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-15, March.
  15. Aizenman, Joshua & Lindahl, Robert & Stenvall, David & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Geopolitical shocks and commodity market dynamics: New evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  16. Xunfa Lu & Huanhuan Yan & Pengchao He & Nicholas Apergis, 2025. "Multifractal relationship between decomposed oil price shocks and trading volume," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
  17. Charalampos Basdekis & Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Ioannis Katsampoxakis & Stylianos Xanthopoulos, 2024. "Trends and Challenges after the Impact of COVID-19 and the Energy Crisis on Financial Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, August.
  18. Irfanullah Khan & Muhammad Tayyab & Faheem Ur Rehman, 2026. "Exploring global contagion in artificial Intelligence, supply chain pressure, oil price, and economic policy uncertainty: insights from a bayesian TVP-SV-VAR model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 1-34, February.
  19. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Dai, Yun-Shi & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the extreme risk spillovers between agricultural futures and spots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 91-111.
  20. Zhang, Yong & Tang, GuangYuan & Li, Rong, 2025. "Spillover effects between China's new energy and carbon markets and international crude oil market: A look at the impact of extreme events," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  21. Nguyen, Huan Huu & Nguyen, Duc Huu & Nguyen, Tam Ha Minh & Chen, Xihui Haviour, 2026. "Geopolitical fragmentation and energy transition inequalities: Climate policy uncertainty, sanctions, and the oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  22. Ghorbani Pashakolaie, Vahid & Cotton, Matthew & Jansen, Malte, 2024. "The co-benefits of offshore wind under the UK Renewable Obligation scheme: Integrating sustainability in energy policy evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
  23. Patra, Saswat, 2024. "An empirical analysis of the volume-volatility nexus in crude oil markets under structural breaks: Implications for forecasting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  24. Wojciech Grabowski & Jakub Janus, 2024. "Tail dependence in European stock markets amidst the Russo-Ukrainian war: Shifting linkages and their determinants," Working Papers REM 2024/0360, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
  25. Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu & Xing, Xiaochao & Wang, Lu & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2024. "Exchange rate movements and the energy transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  26. Pavle Dakić & Igor Stupavský & Vladimir Todorović, 2024. "The Effects of Global Market Changes on Automotive Manufacturing and Embedded Software," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-31, June.
  27. Agnieszka Moskal, 2025. "Energy vs. Precious Metals Funds Performance During Commodity Markets Volatility—Evidence from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-15, February.
  28. Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Rafał Nagaj & Brigita Žuromskaitė-Nagaj & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2024. "The Influence of the Global Energy Crisis on Energy Efficiency: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-51, February.
  29. Ding, Xinpeng & He, Jiayi & Zhang, Yali & Yin, Yi, 2025. "Asymmetric autocorrelation in the crude oil market at multiple scales based on a hybrid approach of variational mode decomposition and quantile autoregression," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 660(C).
  30. Wang, Xiaoqing & Jin, Wenxin & Stan, Sebastian-Emanuel, 2025. "Empowering energy transition: Revisiting the dynamic impacts of Carbon emissions trading and the crude oil market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 988-1001.
  31. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  32. U, Tony Sio-Chong & Lin, Yongjia & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on volatility spillovers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  33. Kim, Won Joong & Ko, Juyoung & Kwon, Won Soon & Piao, Chunyan, 2025. "Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  34. Majd Ibrahim & Bang Wang & Minghua Xu & Han Xu, 2025. "A multidimensional analysis of media framing in the Russia-Ukraine war," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 1-27, May.
  35. Das, Debojyoti & Saurav, Sumit & Dutta, Anupam, 2025. "Modelling for insight: Does oil price uncertainty have directional predictability for travel and leisure firms?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  36. Tang, Qianyong & Li, Huajiao & Feng, Sida & Guo, Sui & Li, Yang & Wang, Xingxing & Zhang, Yuqi, 2025. "Predicting the changes in international crude oil trade relationships via a gravity heuristic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
  37. Acheampong Albert & Ngozi Ibeji & Freeman Owusu & Thuy Nguyen, 2025. "Narrative Disclosure Tone and Bank Risk: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(6), pages 3428-3447, September.
  38. Arfaoui, Nadia & Benammar, Riadh & Obeid, Hassan & SI Mohammed, Kamal, 2026. "Exploring the interconnections between oil price uncertainty and the European renewable energy sector in wartime," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  39. Huang, Kai & Chi, Jing & Liao, Jing & Yuen, Mui Kuen, 2026. "Weathering the storm: How does firm oil price uncertainty exposure impact green innovation in times of geopolitical tensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  40. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "The impact of Russia–Ukraine war on crude oil prices: an EMC framework," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
  41. Ifeanyi Michael Smarte Anekwe & Darlington Ashiegbu & Yusuf Makarfi Isa & Herman Potgieter, 2025. "Circular economy and energy transition: a review of South Africa’s 5-year just energy transition investment plan (JET-IP)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 30(6), pages 1-46, August.
  42. Wang, Ziyang & Dong, Zhiliang, 2024. "Volatility spillover effects among geopolitical risks and international and Chinese crude oil markets——A study utilizing time-varying networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  43. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Arfaoui, Nadia & Mohnot, Rajesh, 2024. "Mapping fear in financial markets: Insights from dynamic networks and centrality measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  44. Wang, Qiang & Zhang, Fuyu & Li, Rongrong & Zhang, Siqi, 2024. "Reinvestigating the impact of natural resource rents on carbon emissions: Novel insights from geopolitical risks and economic complexity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  45. Popova, Ivilina & Liu, Yifan & Yi, Ha-Chin, 2025. "Anchoring on safe haven: Russia–Ukraine war effects on the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  46. Kim, Sunjin & Park, Daehyeon & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Potential sanctions on the Northeast Asia supergrid: A network theory perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
  47. Lu, Man & Yin, Libo & Chen, Fengwen, 2025. "How does macroeconomic uncertainty influence energy futures?: Evidence from extraordinary events," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  48. William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Financial Leverage," Working Papers 2024.11, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  49. Wang, Zhengzhong & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2025. "Forecasting the carbon price of China's national carbon market: A novel dynamic interval-valued framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  50. Živkov, Dejan & Lončar, Sanja & Đurašković, Jasmina & Balaban, Suzana, 2025. "How do non-normal parametric VaR models perform in risk-minimizing portfolios?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  51. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2025. "Temporal dynamics of geopolitical risk: An empirical study on energy commodity interest-adjusted spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  52. Ginn, William & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Impact of supply chain pressures on financial leverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  53. Yue, Tian & Li, Lu-Lu & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2024. "Smirking in the energy market: Evidence from the Chinese crude oil options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  54. Nygaard, Knut & Sørensen, Lars Qvigstad, 2024. "Betting on war? Oil prices, stock returns, and extreme geopolitical events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  55. Fayc{c}al Djebari & Kahina Mehidi & Khelifa Mazouz & Philipp Otto, 2025. "Forecasting Oil Volatility through Network Models with GARCH-Informed Correlation Weights," Papers 2507.15046, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
  56. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "Assessing the extent and persistence of major crisis events in the crude oil market and economy: evidence from the past 30 years," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
  57. Hau, Liya & Xue, Wenxin & Liu, Qigui, 2025. "Multiscale information network among fossil energy, renewable energy and ESG investment under the Russo-Ukrainian conflict," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  58. Fang, Lei & Yu, Chin-Hsien & Li, Xinghao & Chiang, Jyun-You, 2025. "Embracing uncertain times: An energy security perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  59. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  60. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2024. "Revisiting the interdependences across global base metal futures markets: Evidence during the main waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
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