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On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov‐Switching Autoregressive Models

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  1. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
  3. Vollmer, Teresa & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2019. "The influence of Brazilian exports on price transmission processes in the coffee sector: a Markov-switching approach," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 291497, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
  4. Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
  5. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Velinov, Anton, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions : Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30, pages 377-392.
  6. Miguel A. León‐Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, August.
  7. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
  9. Jaehee Kim & Sooyoung Cheon, 2010. "A Bayesian regime‐switching time‐series model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 365-378, September.
  10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  12. Çiğdem YILMAZ & Nilgün ÇİL, 2018. "Markov Switching Autoregressive Model for WTI Crude Oil Price," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(28), pages 45-56, December.
  13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
  14. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The European Unemployment Gap and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1346-1358.
  15. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
  16. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  17. Andrea Cipollini & Kostas Mouratidis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 11-27, August.
  18. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2014. "Autocovariance and Linear Transformations of Markov Switching VARMA Processes," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 275-289, December.
  19. Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov switching model and instrumental variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 423-437.
  20. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  21. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1-25.
  22. Ashouri, Mohammad Javad & Rafei, Meysam, 2021. "How do energy productivity and water resources affect air pollution in Iran? New evidence from a Markov Switching perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  23. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
  24. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.
  25. Dark, Jonathan, 2015. "Futures hedging with Markov switching vector error correction FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 269-285.
  26. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
  27. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2013. "�Determining the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching VAR and VMA Models�," Working Papers 2013:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  28. Richard D. F. Harris & Murat Mazibas, 2022. "A component Markov regime‐switching autoregressive conditional range model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 650-683, April.
  29. Psaradakis Zacharias & Spagnolo Nicola, 2002. "Power Properties of Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series with Markov Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, November.
  30. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  31. Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
  32. Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2013. "Reaction to technology shocks in Markov-switching structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 51-62.
  33. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  34. L. Scaffidi Domianello & E. Otranto, 2023. "On the relationship between Markov Switching inference and Fuzzy Clustering: A Monte Carlo evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 202304, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  35. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
  36. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
  37. Guido Turnip, 2017. "Identification of Small Open Economy SVARs via Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 465-483, September.
  38. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2015. "Likelihood Ratio Test and Information Criteria for Markov Switching Var Models: An Application to the Italian Macroeconomy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(3), pages 315-332, November.
  39. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
  40. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  41. Psaradakis Zacharias & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2006. "Instrumental-Variables Estimation in Markov Switching Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables: An Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-31, May.
  42. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
  43. Libo Xu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "The Demand for Assets: Evidence from the Markov Switching Normalized Quadratic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 989-1025, June.
  44. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
  45. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Level shifts in stock returns driven by large shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-51.
  46. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Volatility Swings in the US Financial Markets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
  47. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  48. Chau Le & Dickinson David, 2014. "Asset price volatility and financial contagion: analysis using the MS-VAR framework," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 133-162, December.
  49. Jonathan Dark & Xin Gao & Thijs van der Heijden & Federico Nardari, 2022. "Forecasting variance swap payoffs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2135-2164, December.
  50. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  51. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
  52. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
  53. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
  54. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
  55. Brigida, Matthew, 2014. "The switching relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-55.
  56. Matthieu Droumaguet & Tomasz Wozniak, 2012. "Bayesian Testing of Granger Causality in Markov-Switching VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/06, European University Institute.
  57. Mariangela Bonasia & Oreste Napolitano, 2007. "Do Fundamentals and Credibility Matter in a Funded Pension System ?A Markov Switching Analysis for Australia and Iceland," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(2), pages 221-248.
  58. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
  59. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
  60. Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez‐Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2015. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 987-1009, September.
  61. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  62. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
  63. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi, 2007. "Markov‐Switching Mean Reversion in Short‐Term Interest Rates: Evidence from East Asian Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 383-397, December.
  64. Wasim, Ahmad & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2011. "Identifying regime shifts in Indian stock market: A Markov switching approach," MPRA Paper 37174, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Mar 2012.
  65. Manera, Matteo & Cologni, Alessandro, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  66. Narayan, Seema & Doytch, Nadia & Nguyen, Tri Tung & Kluegel, Karl, 2016. "Trade of goods and services and risk sharing ability in international equity markets: Are these substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 485-503.
  67. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dendramis, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-170.
  68. E. Otranto, 2011. "Classification of Volatility in Presence of Changes in Model Parameters," Working Paper CRENoS 201113, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  69. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Testing the dependency theory on small island economies: The case of Cyprus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-11.
  70. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
  71. M. Bigeco & E. Grosso & E. Otranto, 2008. "Recognizing and Forecasting the Sign of Financial Local Trends using Hidden Markov Models," Working Paper CRENoS 200803, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  72. Nan Li & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Jointly determining the state dimension and lag order for Markov‐switching vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 471-491, July.
  73. Lacroix, R., 2008. "Assessing the shape of the distribution of interest rates: lessons from French individual data," Working papers 206, Banque de France.
  74. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
  75. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  76. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Identifying Structural Vector Autoregressions via Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1259, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  77. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  78. Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2015. "A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1271-1299, December.
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