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Early retirement eligibility and employment behavior: evidence from a cohort based pension reform

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  • Welteke, Clara
  • Geyer, Johannes
  • Haan, Peter

Abstract

This paper analyzes the employment effects of a major pension reform in Germany using cohort discontinuities. In particular, we focus on the abolition of an early retirement option for women. Up until cohort 1951 women could draw old-age pensions starting with age 60. Women born after 1951 no longer had this opportunity. The eligibility age for early retirement was increased to 63. We exploit this reform in a regression discontinuity framework to study the effects on employment and program substitution. Our preliminary results suggest that the increase in the eligibility age for early retirement increased employment rates of older women. Remarkably, we do not find any significant spillover effects into alternative paths to exit the labor force. On the contrary, we find negative effects on reduced earnings capacity pension participation rates, and small insignificant effects on the unemployment rate of 60 year-old women. Furthermore, we find negative effects on social security program participation of women in their late 50s.

Suggested Citation

  • Welteke, Clara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2016. "Early retirement eligibility and employment behavior: evidence from a cohort based pension reform," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145783
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    2. Giesecke, Matthias & Kind, Michael, 2013. "Bridge Unemployment in Germany: Response in Labour Supply to an Increased Early Retirement Age," Ruhr Economic Papers 410, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
    4. Umut Oguzoglu & Cain Polidano & Ha Vu, 2016. "Impacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
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    16. Norma B. Coe & Kelly Haverstick, 2010. "Measuring the Spillover to Disability Insurance Due to the Rise in the Full Retirement Age," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2010-20, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2010.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    2. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.
    3. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Ardito, Chiara, 2017. "Rising Pension Age in Italy: Employment Response and Program Substitution," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201722, University of Turin.
    5. repec:eee:labeco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:247-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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