IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp10681.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?

Author

Listed:
  • Geyer, Johannes

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Welteke, Clara

    (Bundesministerium der Finanzen)

Abstract

We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We study the effects of the ERA increase on employment and potential program substitution in a regression-discontinuity framework. Germany abolished an important early retirement program for women born after 1951, effectively raising the ERA for women by three years. We analyze the effects of this huge increase on employment, unemployment, disability pensions, and inactivity rates. Our results suggest that the reform increased both employment and unemployment rates of women age 60 and over. However, we do not find evidence for active program substitution from employment into alternative social support programs. Instead employed women remained employed and unemployed women remained unemployed. The results suggest an increase in inequality within the affected cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Geyer, Johannes & Welteke, Clara, 2017. "Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?," IZA Discussion Papers 10681, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10681
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10681.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lukas Inderbitzin & Stefan Staubli & Josef Zweimüller, 2016. "Extended Unemployment Benefits and Early Retirement: Program Complementarity and Program Substitution," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 253-288, February.
    2. Umut Oguzoglu & Cain Polidano & Ha Vu, 2020. "Impacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(312), pages 65-86, March.
    3. Giesecke, Matthias & Kind, Michael, 2013. "Bridge Unemployment in Germany: Response in Labour Supply to an Increased Early Retirement Age," Ruhr Economic Papers 410, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0410 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    7. Ralf K. Himmelreicher & Michael Stegmann, 2008. "European Data Watch: New possibilities for socio-economic research through longitudinal data from the Research Data Center of the Federal German Pension Insurance (FDZ-RV)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(4), pages 647-660.
    8. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2012. "The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 718-728.
    9. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    10. Xiaoyan Li & Nicole Maestas, 2008. "Does the Rise in the Full Retirement Age Encourage Disability Benefits Applications? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers wp198, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
    12. Karlström, Anders & Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2008. "The employment effect of stricter rules for eligibility for DI: Evidence from a natural experiment in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2071-2082, October.
    13. Staubli, Stefan, 2011. "The impact of stricter criteria for disability insurance on labor force participation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1223-1235, October.
    14. Lex Borghans & Anne C. Gielen & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2014. "Social Support Substitution and the Earnings Rebound: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity in Disability Insurance Reform," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 34-70, November.
    15. Axel Boersch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2004. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," NBER Working Papers 10525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kadir Atalay & Garry F. Barrett, 2015. "The Impact of Age Pension Eligibility Age on Retirement and Program Dependence: Evidence from an Australian Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 71-87, March.
    17. Jonathan Cribb & Carl Emmerson & Gemma Tetlow, 2014. "Labour supply effects of increasing the female state pension age in the UK from age 60 to 62," IFS Working Papers W14/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Norma B. Coe & Kelly Haverstick, 2010. "Measuring the Spillover to Disability Insurance Due to the Rise in the Full Retirement Age," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2010-20, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2010.
    19. Duggan, Mark & Singleton, Perry & Song, Jae, 2007. "Aching to retire? The rise in the full retirement age and its impact on the social security disability rolls," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1327-1350, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Todd Morris, 2022. "Re-examining female labor supply responses to the 1994 Australian pension reform," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 419-445, June.
    2. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    3. Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona & Geyer, Johannes & Lorenz, Svenja, 2022. "Early retirement of employees in demanding jobs: Evidence from a German pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    4. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Peters, Michael, 2020. "Labor Market and Distributional Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 118689, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Sep 2023.
    6. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Qiushi Feng & Wei-Jun Jean Yeung & Zhenglian Wang & Yi Zeng, 2019. "Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 29-62, February.
    8. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona, 2022. "Beware of the employer: Financial incentives for employees may fail to prolong old-age employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    10. Chiara Ardito, 2017. "Rising pension age in Italy: Employment response and Program substitution," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 155, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    11. repec:iab:iabfme:201801(en is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dolls, Mathias & Krolage, Carla, 2019. "The Effects of Early Retirement Incentives on Retirement Decisions," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203486, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Lorenz, Svenja & Pfister, Mona & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Identification of the statutory retirement dates in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201808_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.
    15. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix Julian, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Aart‐Jan Riekhoff & Kati Kuitto & Liisa‐Maria Palomäki, 2020. "Substitution and spill‐overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 27-50, April.
    17. Fischer, Björn & Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2020. "Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provision," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 109431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:iab:iabfme:201808(en is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix, 2020. "Working Life and Human Capital Investment: Causal Evidence from Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 12891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Vigtel, Trond Christian, 2018. "The retirement age and the hiring of senior workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 247-270.
    22. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Elisabeth Kurz & Felix Weinhardt, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1753, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Welteke, Clara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2016. "Early retirement eligibility and employment behavior: evidence from a cohort based pension reform," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    3. Todd Morris, 2022. "The unequal burden of retirement reform: Evidence from Australia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 592-619, April.
    4. Riphahn, Regina T. & Schrader, Rebecca, 2023. "Reforms of an early retirement pathway in Germany and their labor market effects," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 304-330, July.
    5. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Peters, Michael, 2020. "Labor Market and Distributional Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Ardito Chiara, 2021. "The unequal impact of raising the retirement age: Employment response and program substitution," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, January.
    7. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.
    8. Chiara Ardito, 2017. "Rising pension age in Italy: Employment response and Program substitution," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 155, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    9. Umut Oguzoglu & Cain Polidano & Ha Vu, 2020. "Impacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(312), pages 65-86, March.
    10. Ye, Han, 2018. "The Effect of Pension Subsidies on Retirement Timing of Older Women: Evidence from a Regression Kink Design," IZA Discussion Papers 11831, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Simon Rabaté & Julie Tréguier, 2022. "Labor Supply Effects of Survivor Insurance: Evidence from Restricted Access to Survivor Benefits in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 437, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Freudenberg, Christoph & Laub, Natalie & Sutor, Tim, 2018. "Pension decrement rates across Europe – Are they too low?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 35-45.
    13. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 109431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. De Brouwer, Octave & Tojerow, Ilan, 2022. "Old-Age Unemployment and Labor Supply: An Application to Belgium," IZA Discussion Papers 15628, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona & Geyer, Johannes & Lorenz, Svenja, 2022. "Early retirement of employees in demanding jobs: Evidence from a German pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Aart‐Jan Riekhoff & Kati Kuitto & Liisa‐Maria Palomäki, 2020. "Substitution and spill‐overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 27-50, April.
    17. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 118689, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Sep 2023.
    19. Lorenz, Svenja & Pfister, Mona & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Identification of the statutory retirement dates in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201808_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Manoli, Dayanand & Weber, Andrea, 2016. "The Effects of the Early Retirement Age on Retirement Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 10154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    retirement age; early retirement; regression discontinuity; pension reform; unemployment; labor supply; disability pension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.