IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1086.html

Markov or not Markov - this should be a question

Author

Listed:
  • Bickenbach, Frank
  • Bode, Eckhardt

Abstract

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

Suggested Citation

  • Bickenbach, Frank & Bode, Eckhardt, 2001. "Markov or not Markov - this should be a question," Kiel Working Papers 1086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/2673/1/kap1086.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    2. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, March.
    3. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    4. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 17-47, January.
    5. Bernard Fingleton, 2000. "Convergence: International comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 285-305.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    7. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-2132, December.
    8. Bode, Eckhardt, 2001. "Is regional innovative activity path-dependent? An empirical analysis for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1058, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    9. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January.
    10. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
    13. Fingleton, B & McCombie, J S L, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions: A Correction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 574-575, July.
    14. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
    15. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    16. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    17. repec:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:2:p:226-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    20. Bode, Eckhardt, 1998. "Lokale Wissensdiffusion und regionale Divergenz in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1038, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
    22. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    23. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:4:p:427-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Levell & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Constructing Full Adult Life-cycles from Short Panels," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 5-40.
    2. Galina Chernyshova & Irina Veshneva & Anna Firsova & Elena L. Makarova & Elena A. Makarova, 2023. "Methodology for Assessing the Risks of Regional Competitiveness Based on the Kolmogorov–Chapman Equations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Brecht Verbeken & Marie-Anne Guerry, 2021. "Discrete Time Hybrid Semi-Markov Models in Manpower Planning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-13, July.
    4. Sabino da Silva Porto Junior & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, 2003. "Dinâmica Espacial da Renda Per capita e Crescimento Entre os Municípios da Região Nordeste do Brasil - uma Análise Markoviana," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] e54, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Stefano Marta & Francesco Timpano, 2016. "Determinants of Intra-Distribution Dynamics in European Regions: An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Structural Intervention," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(5), pages 522-539, December.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2019. "Regional patterns in technological progress of Poland: the role of EU structural funds," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 1195-1220, December.
    7. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    8. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71, February.
    9. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2006. "Micro-dynamics of Free and Open Source Software Development. Lurking, laboring and launching new projects on SourceForge," LEM Papers Series 2006/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Alejandro Rodriguez Caro & Santiago Rodriguez Feijoó & Carlos Gonzalez Correa, 2005. "Markov Chain approach to Purchasing Power Convergence in the 15 European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa05p457, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Mattrand, C. & Bourinet, J.-M., 2014. "The cross-entropy method for reliability assessment of cracked structures subjected to random Markovian loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 171-182.
    12. Mariano Bosch Mossi & Patricio Aroca & Ismael J. FernáNDEZ & Carlos Roberto Azzoni, 2003. "Growth Dynamics and Space in Brazil," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 393-418, July.
    13. Luis Armando Galvis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y demográfico regional en Colombia, 1985-2012," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(33), pages 183-201, July-Dece.
    14. Nilsson, Isabelle & Delmelle, Elizabeth, 2018. "Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 167-179.
    15. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2008. "Dynamics of innovation in an “open source” collaboration environment: lurking, laboring, and launching FLOSS projects on SourceForge," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 17(4), pages 647-710, August.
    16. Yousif Alyousifi & Kamarulzaman Ibrahim & Mahmod Othamn & Wan Zawiah Wan Zin & Nicolas Vergne & Abdullah Al-Yaari, 2022. "Bayesian Information Criterion for Fitting the Optimum Order of Markov Chain Models: Methodology and Application to Air Pollution Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-16, June.
    17. Qiaoli Xiao & Yue Wang, 2022. "Study on the Spatial Convergence Club and Growth Momentum of China’s Regional Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2005. "Convergence of EU-regions: A literature report," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 80, University of Kassel, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    19. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2005. "Patterns Of Persistence And Mobility In Gdp Per Head Across Gb Counties," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 96(5), pages 529-540, December.
    20. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2006. "Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-33.
    21. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April.
    22. Patricio Aroca & Mariano Bosch & William F. Maloney, 2005. "Spatial Dimensions of Trade Liberalization and Economic Convergence: Mexico 1985--2002," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(3), pages 345-378.
    23. Piotr Tadeusz Wójcik, 2022. "The parallel convergence of income and educational achievements: joint distribution dynamics," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 527-548, June.
    24. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    25. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2003. "Convergence and space," Urban/Regional 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2003.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Bickenbach & Eckhardt Bode, 2003. "Evaluating the Markov Property in Studies of Economic Convergence," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 363-392, July.
    2. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    3. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    4. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2003. "Convergence and space," Urban/Regional 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2003.
    5. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April.
    6. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2005. "Convergence of EU-regions: A literature report," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 80, University of Kassel, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    7. Maarten Bosker & Waldo Krugell, 2008. "Regional Income Evolution In South Africa After Apartheid," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 493-523, August.
    8. Maurseth, Per Botolf, 2001. "Convergence, geography and technology," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-276, September.
    9. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    10. Maarten Bosker, 2009. "The spatial evolution of regional GDP disparities in the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ Europe," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 3-27, March.
    11. Julie Le Gallo, 2004. "Space-Time Analysis of GDP Disparities among European Regions: A Markov Chains Approach," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 27(2), pages 138-163, April.
    12. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    13. Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Stefano Marta & Francesco Timpano, 2016. "Determinants of Intra-Distribution Dynamics in European Regions: An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Structural Intervention," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(5), pages 522-539, December.
    14. Jesús Peiró-Palomino & William Orlando Prieto-Bustos & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2020. "Weighted convergence in Colombian departments: The role of geography and demography," Working Papers 2020/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    15. Völlmecke, Dominik & Jindra, Björn & Marek, Philipp, 2016. "FDI, human capital and income convergence—Evidence for European regions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 288-307.
    16. Jalal El Ouardighi & Rabija Somun-Kapetanovic, 2009. "Convergence and Inequality of income: the case of Western Balkan countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(2), pages 207-225, December.
    17. Sheila Chapman & Stefania Cosci & Loredana Mirra, 2012. "Income dynamics in an enlarged Europe: the role of capital regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 663-693, June.
    18. Leone Leonida & Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2003. "Public Capital, Growth and Convergence in Spain. A Counterfactual Density Estimation Approach," Working Papers 2003/3, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    19. Ezcurra, Roberto, 2007. "Is there cross-country convergence in carbon dioxide emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1363-1372, February.
    20. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2019. "Regional patterns in technological progress of Poland: the role of EU structural funds," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 1195-1220, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.