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Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change

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  • Nilsson, Isabelle
  • Delmelle, Elizabeth

Abstract

This paper is focused on the identification of, and the dynamics associated with, neighborhoods that are more prone to undergo socioeconomic and demographic changes following rail transit investments. Utilizing data from 9 metropolitan areas that have invested in light rail between 1980 and 2010, a k-means clustering approach is used to construct discrete multivariate neighborhood typologies. Together with Markov chains, we are able to examine transitions between neighborhood types before and after the opening of a station. Results for affected neighborhoods are compared to city-wide transitions to uncover differences. Our findings suggest that there is a significant difference in transit and non-transit neighborhood transitions. There also appears to be a difference in trajectories between Walk-and-Ride and Park-and-Ride neighborhoods. While neighborhoods are largely stable over time, impoverished neighborhoods are most likely to experience changes (such as gentrification) following the opening of a transit station. The most affluent neighborhoods are the least likely to experience change but are associated with the most probable trajectory of change featuring densification. Finally, there is little evidence that socioeconomic ascent following station openings is associated with significant changes in racial composition. Knowledge about neighborhood dynamics associated with transit investments can aid policy makers and planners in achieving socioeconomic goals of transit investments.

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  • Nilsson, Isabelle & Delmelle, Elizabeth, 2018. "Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 167-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:167-179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.12.001
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    Cited by:

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    6. Shadi O. Tehrani & Shuling J. Wu & Jennifer D. Roberts, 2019. "The Color of Health: Residential Segregation, Light Rail Transit Developments, and Gentrification in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, September.
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    9. Popovich, Natalie & Spurlock, C. Anna & Needell, Zachary & Jin, Ling & Wenzel, Tom & Sheppard, Colin & Asudegi, Mona, 2021. "A methodology to develop a geospatial transportation typology," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Allen, Jeff & Higgins, Christopher D. & Silver, Daniel & Farber, Steven, 2023. "Are low-income residents disproportionately moving away from transit?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Nilsson, Isabelle & Schuch, Johanna C. & Delmelle, Elizabeth C. & Canales, Kristine L., 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? A survey analysis of neighborhood change and residential mobility concerns around new light rail stations in Charlotte, NC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Su, Shiliang & Zhao, Chong & Zhou, Hao & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Unraveling the relative contribution of TOD structural factors to metro ridership: A novel localized modeling approach with implications on spatial planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Yang, Ziqi & Li, Xinghua & Guo, Yuntao & Qian, Xinwu, 2023. "Understanding active transportation accessibility's impacts on polycentric and monocentric cities' housing price," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. González, Silvia R. & Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia & Chapple, Karen, 2019. "Transit neighborhoods, commercial gentrification, and traffic crashes: Exploring the linkages in Los Angeles and the Bay Area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-89.
    15. Elizabeth Delmelle & Isabelle Nilsson, 2020. "New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(1), pages 134-151, January.
    16. Bohman, Helena, 2021. "Same, same but different? Neighbourhood effects of accessibility on housing prices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 52-60.
    17. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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